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Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows: Evidence from the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Broner
  • Alberto Martín
  • Lorenzo Pandolfi
  • Tomás Williams

Abstract

We study the effects of sovereign debt inflows on domestic firms. To do so, we exploit episodes of large sovereign debt inflows, which follow the announcements of the inclusion of six emerging countries into major sovereign debt indexes. We find that these events reduce government bond yields, appreciate the domestic currency, and have heterogeneous stock-market effects on domestic firms. Firms operating in tradable industries experience lower returns than firms in non-tradable industries. In addition, financial firms, government-related firms, and firms that rely more on external financing experience higher returns. The effect on financial and government-related firms is stronger in countries that display larger reductions in government bond yields. The effect on tradable firms is stronger in countries that display stronger appreciations. We provide a stylized model that rationalizes these results. Our findings shed novel light on the channels through which sovereign debt inflows affect firms in emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Broner & Alberto Martín & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomás Williams, 2020. "Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows: Evidence from the Stock Market," Working Papers 1152, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1152
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    3. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2019. "The global financial resource curse," Economics Working Papers 1803, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2023.
    4. Matteo Maggiori, 2021. "FX policy when financial markets are imperfect," BIS Working Papers 942, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Zhao, Panting & Yao, Xin & Shen, Rui, 2024. "Capital market internationalization and firms' ESG performance: Evidence from the inclusion of China A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Market Index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Marcus Hagedorn, 2021. "An Equilibrium Theory of Nominal Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 9290, CESifo.
    7. Lucas A. Mariani & Silvia Marchesi, 2023. "International Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity and Capital Inflows (Mis)Allocation," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Southern Africa.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt; capital inflows; exchange rate; government yields; stock prices; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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