IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/849.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capital Controls and Foreign Reserves against External Shocks: Combined or Alone?

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Cezar
  • Eric Monnet

Abstract

Long considered suboptimal, capital controls and FX interventions are now recognized as prudential measures. Yet, whether they should be used in combination remains an open question. Thanks to a rich dataset from 1950, we investigate how the response of FX reserves to an exogenous US monetary shock depends on capital controls. The response is insignificant with a very close capital account. By contrast, for a significant number of countries, FX interventions and capital controls are combined to tame the effects of an international financial shock. Yet, as countries open up financially, FX interventions replace capital controls. There is no one-sizes-fits-all recipe.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Cezar & Eric Monnet, 2021. "Capital Controls and Foreign Reserves against External Shocks: Combined or Alone?," Working papers 849, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:849
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/wp849.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    3. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2014. "Dilemma Not Trilemma? Capital Controls and Exchange Rates with Volatile Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 569-605, November.
    4. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    5. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.
    6. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 23-41.
    7. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    9. Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "Global financial cycle and liquidity management," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    11. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2020. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 22-40.
    12. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Yannick Kalantzis, 2013. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can This Be Optimal?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 229-262, July.
    13. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    14. Sebastián Fanelli & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions [The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2857-2885.
    15. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    16. Bengui, Julien & Arce, Fernando & Bianchi, Javier, 2019. "A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13952, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Jacques Miniane & John H. Rogers, 2007. "Capital Controls and the International Transmission of U.S. Money Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1003-1035, August.
    18. Hélène Rey, 2016. "International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 6-35, May.
    19. Bazot, Guillaume & Monnet, Eric & Morys, Matthias, 2022. "Taming the Global Financial Cycle: Central Banks as Shock Absorbers in the First Era of Globalization," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 801-839, September.
    20. Gustavo Adler & Kyun Suk Chang & Rui Mano & Yuting Shao, 2021. "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Dataset of Public Data and Proxies," IMF Working Papers 2021/047, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    22. Viral V. Acharya & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2019. "Capital Flow Management with Multiple Instruments," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 6, pages 169-203, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
    24. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2012. "Prudential Policy for Peggers," NBER Working Papers 18031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    26. Moritz Schularick & Lucas ter Steege & Felix Ward, 2021. "Leaning against the Wind and Crisis Risk," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 199-214, June.
    27. Monnet, Eric & Puy, Damien, 2020. "Do old habits die hard? Central banks and the Bretton Woods gold puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    28. Bussière, Matthieu & Cheng, Gong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Lisack, Noëmie, 2015. "For a few dollars more: Reserves and growth in times of crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 127-145.
    29. Dennis Quinn & Martin Schindler & A Maria Toyoda, 2011. "Assessing Measures of Financial Openness and Integration," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(3), pages 488-522, August.
    30. Fratzscher, Marcel & Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Stöhr, Tobias, 2019. "When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 0(1), pages 132-156.
    31. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    32. Eric Monnet & Mr. Damien Puy, 2019. "One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2019/202, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    34. Arango-Lozano, Lucía & Menkhoff, Lukas & Rodríguez-Novoa, Daniela & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2024. "The effectiveness of FX interventions: A meta-analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    35. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier, 2020. "Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework," IMF Working Papers 2020/123, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Olivier Jeanne, 2016. "The Macroprudential Role of International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 570-573, May.
    37. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," Staff Reports 925, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    38. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2010. "Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 403-407, May.
    39. Paolo Cavallino, 2019. "Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Intervention," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 127-170, April.
    40. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Toro, 2010. "Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?," Borradores de Economia 7622, Banco de la Republica.
    41. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2017. "Is Optimal Capital Control Policy Countercyclical in Open Economy Models with Collateral Constraints?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 498-527, August.
    42. Dennis P. Quinn & A. Maria Toyoda, 2008. "Does Capital Account Liberalization Lead to Growth?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1403-1449, May.
    43. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    44. Monnet, Eric & bazot, guillaume & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the Global Financial Cycle: Central Banks and the Sterilization of Capital Flows in the First Era of Globalization (1891," CEPR Discussion Papers 13895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Mr. Suman S Basu & Ms. Emine Boz & Ms. Gita Gopinath & Mr. Francisco Roch & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2020. "A Conceptual Model for the Integrated Policy Framework," IMF Working Papers 2020/121, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(6), pages 2754-2776.
    47. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    48. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    49. Bazot, Guillaume & Monnet, Eric & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the gobal financial cycle: Central banks and the sterilization of capital flows in the first era of globalization," IBF Paper Series 03-19, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Ho, Sy-Hoa & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Elizabeth Bucacos & Javier García-Cicco & Miguel Mello, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Foreign Shocks. The case of Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2023008, Banco Central del Uruguay.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," Working Papers 787, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Cavallino, Paolo & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Adler, Gustavo & Lisack, Noëmie & Mano, Rui C., 2019. "Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    4. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Globalization Institute Working Papers 405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 10 Sep 2021.
    5. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Mehl, Arnaud, 2019. "On the global financial market integration “swoosh” and the trilemma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 227-245.
    7. Sandri, Damiano & Bergant, Katharina & Grigoli, Francesco & Hansen, Niels-Jakob, 2020. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Katharina Bergant & Francesco Grigoli & Niels‐Jakob Hansen & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1405-1438, September.
    9. Eric Monnet & Mr. Damien Puy, 2019. "One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2019/202, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Davis, J. Scott & Fujiwara, Ippei & Huang, Kevin X.D. & Wang, Jiao, 2021. "Foreign exchange reserves as a tool for capital account management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 473-488.
    11. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Marcel Fratzscher & Tobias Heidland & Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 852-884, December.
    14. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    16. Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "Global financial cycle and liquidity management," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    17. Davis, J. Scott & Devereux, Michael B. & Yu, Changhua, 2023. "Sudden stops and optimal foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    18. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Bazot, Guillaume & Monnet, Eric & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the gobal financial cycle: Central banks and the sterilization of capital flows in the first era of globalization," IBF Paper Series 03-19, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Controls ; Foreign Exchange Interventions ; Foreign Exchange Reserves ; GlobalvFinancial Cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:849. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.