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Economic Activity and the Value of Medical Innovation during a Pandemic

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  • Casey B. Mulligan

    (University of Chicago - Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics)

Abstract

We are currently fighting a war against the COVID-19 virus.The war presents an obvious and massive tradeoff between “guns†–activities whose primary purpose is war production–and “butter,†which refers to the normal activities of households and businesses. Without any improvement in our techniques for fighting the war, the sacrifices by households and businesses will be staggering and historically unprecedented. This document enumerates and quantifies the sacrifices, showing why negative 60 percent is an optimistic projection for the annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP in 2020 Q2 if the nonessential businesses were not allowed to operate during that quarter. The lost surplus from market activity, while massive, nonetheless understates the true costs of the sacrifices that households and businesses are making, which I estimate to total almost $15,000 per household per quarter before counting any health costs or monetizing any intrinsic costs of forgone civil liberties. This is why better techniques for fighting the war are incredibly valuable.

Suggested Citation

  • Casey B. Mulligan, 2020. "Economic Activity and the Value of Medical Innovation during a Pandemic," Working Papers 2020-48, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-48
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    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_202048.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Broughel, James & Kotrous, Michael, 2020. "The Benefits of Coronavirus Suppression: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Response to the First Wave of COVID-19," Working Papers 10632, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    3. Kong, Edward & Prinz, Daniel, 2020. "Disentangling policy effects using proxy data: Which shutdown policies affected unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    5. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2022. "Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on price Co-movements in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Rehse, Dominik & Tremöhlen, Felix, 2022. "Fostering participation in digital contact tracing," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. M. O. Oleche & D. K. Manda & R. G. Mutegi & S. Kipruto & M. K. Muriithi & P. Samoei & A. W. Ndirangu & G. Mwabu, 2023. "The gendered impacts of COVID-19 and business closure due to lockdown on wage employment in Kenya," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 2(2), pages 31-48.
    8. James Broughel & Michael Kotrous, 2021. "The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Casey B. Mulligan, 2021. "The Incidence and Magnitude of the Health Costs of In-person Schooling during the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Richard Gearhart & Lyudmyla Sonchak-Ardan & Nyakundi Michieka, 2022. "The efficiency of COVID cases to COVID policies: a robust conditional approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2903-2948, December.
    11. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi & Michael J. Mina & James H. Stock, 2020. "Reopening Scenarios," NBER Working Papers 27244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jin Fan & Hongshu Wang & Xiaolan Zhang, 2022. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Achieving the Goal of Stable Growth by China’s Market Expectations in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Rehse, Dominik & Tremöhlen, Felix, 2020. "Fostering participation in digital public health interventions: The case of digital contact tracing," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-076, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Croce, Mariano & Farroni, Paolo & Wolfskeil, Isabella, 2020. "When the Markets Get COVID: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 14674, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Casey B. Mulligan, 2021. "The Backward Art of Slowing the Spread? Congregation Efficiencies during COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 28737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Christopher Cotton & Bahman Kashi & Huw Lloyd‐Ellis & Frederic Tremblay & Brett Crowley, 2022. "Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID‐19 policy responses on Canada's provinces in (almost) real time," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 406-445, February.
    17. Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion," NBER Working Papers 27121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. George Kapetanios & Nora Neuteboom & Feiko Ritsema & Alexia Ventouri, 2022. "How did consumers react to the COVID‐19 pandemic over time?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 961-993, October.

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