IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_444_18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price and cost competitiveness misalignments of the euro area and of its main economies according to a quarterly BEER model, 1999-2017

Author

Listed:
  • Claire Giordano

    (Banca d�Italia)

Abstract

This study first assesses recent misalignments of the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the euro area and of the Harmonized Competitiveness Indicators (HCIs) of its main economies, based on a quarterly Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model. Next, it draws a comparison with comparable estimates published by the IMF and by CEPII. The BEER model here employed was first put forward by Fidora, Giordano and Schmitz (2017; 2018) and enables the assessment of the departure of actual REERs and HCIs from values consistent with underlying economic fundamentals (i.e. �equilibrium� values). The quarterly model has now been extended to cover a longer time span (1999-2017) and refined by employing new data sources, in particular relative to producer price indices, one of five alternative price/cost indicators used to derive the REERs and HCIs. There is evidence of a modest overvaluation of the euro-area REER in 2017, partly linked to the nominal appreciation of its currency in the second half of the year.

Suggested Citation

  • Claire Giordano, 2018. "Price and cost competitiveness misalignments of the euro area and of its main economies according to a quarterly BEER model, 1999-2017," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 444, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_444_18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2018-0444/QEF_444_18.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2018. "EQCHANGE: A world database on actual and equilibrium effective exchange rates," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 206-230.
    2. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "On the Complementarity of Equilibrium Exchange‐Rate Approaches," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 618-632, September.
    3. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On Currency Misalignments within the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 35-48, February.
    4. Menzie Chinn, 2006. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 115-143, January.
    5. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Long‐run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 649-672, November.
    6. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    7. Konrad Adler & Dr. Christian Grisse, 2014. "Real exchange rates and fundamentals: robustness across alternative model specifications," Working Papers 2014-07, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Tkačevs, Olegs & Christodoulopoulou, Styliani, 2014. "Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?," Working Paper Series 1736, European Central Bank.
    9. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    10. Jaebin Ahn & Rui C. Mano & Jing Zhou, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate and External Balance: How Important Are Price Deflators?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 2111-2130, December.
    11. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Robust Estimations Of Equilibrium Exchange Rates Within The G20: A Panel Beer Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 608-633, November.
    12. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "Measuring Renminbi Misalignment: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers 242010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
    15. Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh, 2016. "Adjusting the external adjustment: cyclical factors and the Italian current account," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 346, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claire Giordano, 2020. "An update of the Bank of Italy methodology underlying the estimation of price-competitiveness misalignments," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 556, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    3. Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano, 2018. "Rethinking prices and markets underlying price-competitiveness indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 447, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Silvia Fabiani & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Roberto Torrini, 2019. "Making room for new competitors. A comparative perspective on Italy’s exports in the euro-area market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 530, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    2. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    3. Ramos-Herrera María del Carmen, 2022. "How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 199-211, January.
    4. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2022. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Claire Giordano, 2023. "Revisiting the real exchange rate misalignment‐economic growth nexus via the across‐sector misallocation channel," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1329-1384, September.
    6. Claire Giordano, 2020. "An update of the Bank of Italy methodology underlying the estimation of price-competitiveness misalignments," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 556, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    8. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2018. "Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 414-436.
    9. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 237-247.
    10. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Long‐run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 649-672, November.
    12. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," Working Papers hal-04141675, HAL.
    13. Christoph Fischer, 2019. "Equilibrium real exchange rate estimates across time and space," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    14. Silvia Calò & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Real Effective Exchange Rates determinants and growth: lessons from Italian regions," CEIS Research Paper 456, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 27 Mar 2019.
    15. Leonor Coutinho & Nuria Mata Garcia & Alessandro Turrini & Goran Vukšić, 2021. "Methodologies for the Assessment of Real Effective Exchange Rates," European Economy - Discussion Papers 149, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    17. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Economic growth and deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 764-786.
    19. Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2014. "A new assessment of the Chinese RMB exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 113-122.
    20. Baak, SaangJoon, 2017. "Is the yen misaligned more during the Abenomics period?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price competitiveness; cost competitiveness; real effective exchange rate; equilibrium exchange rate; misalignments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_444_18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.