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Skewed SVARs: tracking the structural sources of macroeconomic tail risks

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Montes-Galdón

    (European Central Bank)

  • Eva Ortega

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper proposes a vector autoregressive model with structural shocks (SVAR) that are identified using sign restrictions and whose distribution is subject to time-varying skewness. It also presents an efficient Bayesian algorithm to estimate the model. The model allows for the joint tracking of asymmetric risks to macroeconomic variables included in the SVAR. It also provides a narrative about the structural reasons for the changes over time in those risks. Using euro area data, our estimation suggests that there has been a significant variation in the skewness of demand, supply and monetary policy shocks between 1999 and 2019. This variation lies behind a significant proportion of the joint dynamics of real GDP growth and inflation in the euro area over this period, and also generates important asymmetric tail risks in these macroeconomic variables. Finally, compared to the literature on growth- and inflation-at-risk, we found that financial stress indicators do not suffice to explain all the macroeconomic tail risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Montes-Galdón & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Skewed SVARs: tracking the structural sources of macroeconomic tail risks," Working Papers 2208, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    2. Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2023. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 869-901, May.
    3. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2015. "Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(5), pages 1963-1999, September.
    4. Coenen, Günter & Karadi, Peter & Schmidt, Sebastian & Warne, Anders, 2018. "The New Area-Wide Model II: an extended version of the ECB’s micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector," Working Paper Series 2200, European Central Bank.
    5. Sulkhan Chavleishvili & Simone Manganelli, 2024. "Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 66-85, January.
    6. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    7. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 685-720, March.
    8. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    2. Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Paredes, Joan & Wolf, Elias, 2022. "Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approach," Working Paper Series 2754, European Central Bank.
    3. Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Ajevskis, Viktors & Brázdik, František & Garcia, Pablo & Gatt, William & Lima, Diana & Mavromatis, Kostas & Ortega, Eva & Papadopoulou, Niki & De Lorenzo, Ivan & Kolb, Benedikt, 2024. "Using structural models to understand macroeconomic tail risks," Occasional Paper Series 357, European Central Bank.
    4. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    5. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2023. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    7. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Botelho, Vasco & Foroni, Claudia & Renzetti, Andrea, 2023. "Labour at risk," Working Paper Series 2840, European Central Bank.
    9. Andrea Renzetti, 2023. "Modelling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Risk with Time Varying Skewness Stochastic Volatility Models," Papers 2306.09287, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian SVAR; skewness; growth-at-risk; inflation-at-risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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