International migration pressures in the long run

Using an empirical gravity model, I estimate the contribution of changes in relative labor supply to bilateral migration in the 2000s and apply the resulting estimates to project future bilateral flows based on population forecasts by the United Nations. I extend the work of Hanson and McIntosh (2016) by including non-OECD destinations and project international migration flows for the whole world. In contrast to their findings, and despite of the slowdown of population growth in Latin America, the US will face sustained immigration pressures because of strong population growth in other regions of the world, leading to a projected immigrant stock that grows for decades to come. For the world as a whole, international migrants are projected to increase from 2.8% of total world population in 2010 to 3.5% in 2050, with a substantial increase of migrants originating from India and Sub-Saharan Africa.