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Oil price and economic growth: a long story?

Author

Listed:
  • María Dolores Gadea

    (UNIVERSITY OF ZARAGOZA)

  • Ana Gómez-Loscos

    (Banco de España)

  • Antonio Montañés

    (UNIVERSITY OF ZARAGOZA)

Abstract

This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately. From a multivariate perspective, we do not observe a significant effect between changes in oil prices and GDP growth when considering the full period. However, we find a significant relationship in some subperiods by carrying out a rolling analysis and by investigating the presence of structural breaks in the multivariate framework. Finally, we obtain evidence, by means of a time-varying VAR, that the impact of the oil price shock on GDP growth has declined over time. We also observe that the negative effect is greater at the time of large oil price increases, supporting previous evidence of nonlinearity in the relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2016. "Oil price and economic growth: a long story?," Working Papers 1625, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1625
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    2. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Saafi, Sami & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? New evidence from a time-varying threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Qian, Yu & Xu, Zeshui & Qin, Yong & Gou, Xunjie & Skare, Marinko, 2023. "Measuring the varying relationships between sustainable development and oil booms in different contexts: An empirical study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    4. Alfredo M. Leone & Jorge I. Canales Kriljenko & Rodolfo Maino, 2023. "The Long and Widening Gap: Analyzing Structural Breaks in Argentina’s Economic Decline," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(4), pages 243-259, November.
    5. Davide De Gaetano, 2017. "A Bootstrap Bias Correction Of Long Run Fourth Order Moment Estimation In The Cusum Of Squares Test," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0220, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    6. Tomader Elhassan, 2021. "Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 579-585.
    7. Ahmad Al Humssi & Maria Petrovskaya & Milana Abueva, 2022. "Modelling the Impact of World Oil Prices and the Mining and Quarrying Sector on the United Arab Emirates’ GDP," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; business cycle; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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