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Endogenous fiscal consolidations

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Hernández de Cos

    (Banco de España)

  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

There is evidence in the literature of fiscal consolidation episodes producing (non-Keynesian) expansionary effects (e.g. Alesina and Ardagna, 1998). We replicate this result for a panel of OECD countries under exogeneity of the fiscal tightening decision, and provide evidence that this decision is endogenous to GDP so that the exogeneity assumption might be inappropriate. Once this endogeneity is taken into consideration, we find that fiscal consolidations have a negative impact on GDP as expected in a Keynesian framework. We also investigate the determinants of successful consolidations. In particular, we use model averaging to overcome the problem of model uncertainty, and conclude that economic recovery and cuts in public wages are the most important ingredients of a consolidation program for successfully reducing budget deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2011. "Endogenous fiscal consolidations," Working Papers 1102, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1102
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/11/Fich/dt1102e.pdf
    File Function: First version, March 2011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The outcome bias
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2014-01-02 20:14:17

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Fiscall Adjustments and Income Inequality:A First Assessment," NIPE Working Papers 19/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
    3. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Consolidation and Income Inequality," NIPE Working Papers 34/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. David Lodge & Marta Rodriguez-Vives, 2013. "How long can austerity persist? The factors that sustain fiscal consolidations," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 2(1), pages 5-24, June.
    5. Yang, Weonho & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment: A tale of two approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 31-60.
    6. Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Ksenia Koloskova, 2014. "Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions," IMF Working Papers 2014/213, International Monetary Fund.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Belgium: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/071, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab, 2012. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: An Analysis with an Estimated DSGE Model for the Hungarian Economy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 945, OECD Publishing.
    9. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 1. How Much is Needed and How to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 932, OECD Publishing.
    10. Munkacsi, Zsuzsa, 2015. "Fiscal austerity, unemployment and family firms," Discussion Papers 06/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; panel data; endogeneity; model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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