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Is the Excess Bond Premium a Leading Indicator of Canadian Economic Activity?

Author

Listed:
  • Maxime Leboeuf
  • Daniel Hyun

Abstract

This note investigates whether Canadian corporate spreads and the excess bond premium (EBP) lead Canadian economic activity. Indeed, we find that corporate spreads precede changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada over the subsequent year. The EBP accounts for most of this property. Further, an unanticipated increase in the Canadian EBP forecasts a deterioration of domestic macroeconomic conditions: a 10-basis-point increase results in a fall in both GDP and consumer price index (CPI) of 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively, over three years.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxime Leboeuf & Daniel Hyun, 2018. "Is the Excess Bond Premium a Leading Indicator of Canadian Economic Activity?," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-4, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:18-4
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    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/03/staff-analytical-note-2018-4/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maxime Leboeuf & James Pinnington, 2017. "What Explains the Recent Increase in Canadian Corporate Bond Spreads," Staff Analytical Notes 17-2, Bank of Canada.
    2. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2017. "An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 541-570, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Kabaca, Serdar & Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "International transmission of quantitative easing policies: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Patrick Blagrave & Claudia Godbout & Justin-Damien Guénette & René Lalonde & Nikita Perevalov, 2020. "IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity," Technical Reports 116, Bank of Canada.
    3. Yang Zhang & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Swarbrick & Joel Wagner & Tudor Schlanger, 2021. "Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 2021-10, Bank of Canada.
    4. Nusrat Jahan, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Credit Spreads: Evidence from Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 22-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    5. Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc & Maxime Leboeuf, 2019. "Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-26, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G - Financial Economics
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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