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The myth of declining competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage

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  • L'aszl'o Csat'o
  • D'ora Gr'eta Petr'oczy

Abstract

According to previous studies, competitive balance has significantly declined in the UEFA Champions League group stage over the recent decades. Our paper introduces six alternative indices for measuring ex ante and ex post competitive balance in order to explore the robustness of these results. The ex ante measures are based on Elo ratings, while the ex post measures compare the group ranking to reasonable benchmarks. We find no evidence of any trend in the competitive balance of the UEFA Champions League group stage between the 2003/04 and 2023/24 seasons.

Suggested Citation

  • L'aszl'o Csat'o & D'ora Gr'eta Petr'oczy, 2024. "The myth of declining competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage," Papers 2406.19222, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2406.19222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. László Csató, 2020. "The UEFA Champions League seeding is not strategy-proof since the 2015/16 season," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 161-169, September.
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    6. P. Dorian Owen & Caitlin A. Owen, 2022. "Simulation evidence on Herfindahl-Hirschman measures of competitive balance in professional sports leagues," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(2), pages 285-300, March.
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