China's plug-in hybrid electric vehicles transition: an operational carbon perspective

Assessing the energy and emissions of representative plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) model operations is crucial for accelerating carbon neutrality transitions in China's passenger car sector. This study makes the first attempt to create a bottom-up model to measure the real-world energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of China's top twenty selling PHEV model operations across different geographical regions during 2020-2022. The results indicate that (1) the actual electricity intensity for the best-selling PEHV models (20.2-38.2 kilowatt-hour [kWh]/100 kilometers [km]) was 30-40% higher than the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) values, and the actual gasoline intensity (4.7 to 23.5 liters [L]/100 km) was 3-6 times greater than the NEDC values. (2) The overall energy consumption of the best-selling models exhibited variations among various geographical regions, and the total gasoline equivalent was twice as high in southern China (1283 mega-liters, 2020-2022) than in northern China and the Yangtze River Middle Reach. (3) The top-selling models emitted 4.9 mega-tons (Mt) of CO2 nationwide from 2020-2022, 1.9 Mt from electricity and 3 Mt from gasoline. In northern China, carbon emissions per vehicle were more than 1.2 times greater than those in other regions. Furthermore, targeted policy implications for expediting the carbon-neutral transition within the passenger vehicles are proposed. Overall, this study reviews and compares national and regional benchmark data and performance data for PHEV operations. Its objective is to bolster national decarbonization initiatives, ensuring low emissions and expediting the transportation sector's transition toward a net-zero era.