IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2301.00509.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time-Varying Coefficient DAR Model and Stability Measures for Stablecoin Prices: An Application to Tether

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Djobenou
  • Emre Inan
  • Joann Jasiak

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of Tether, the stablecoin with the largest market capitalization. We show that the distributional and dynamic properties of Tether/USD rates have been evolving from 2017 to 2021. We use local analysis methods to detect and describe the local patterns, such as short-lived trends, time-varying volatility and persistence. To accommodate these patterns, we consider a time varying parameter Double Autoregressive tvDAR(1) model under the assumption of local stationarity of Tether/USD rates. We estimate the tvDAR model non-parametrically and test hypotheses on the functional parameters. In the application to Tether, the model provides a good fit and reliable out-of-sample forecasts at short horizons, while being robust to time-varying persistence and volatility. In addition, the model yields a simple plug-in measure of stability for Tether and other stablecoins for assessing and comparing their stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Djobenou & Emre Inan & Joann Jasiak, 2023. "Time-Varying Coefficient DAR Model and Stability Measures for Stablecoin Prices: An Application to Tether," Papers 2301.00509, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.00509
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2301.00509
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Min Chen & Dong Li & Shiqing Ling, 2014. "Non-Stationarity And Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation On A Double Autoregressive Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 189-202, May.
    2. Li, Qi, 1999. "Consistent model specification tests for time series econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 101-147, September.
    3. Bullmann, Dirk & Klemm, Jonas & Pinna, Andrea, 2019. "In search for stability in crypto-assets: are stablecoins the solution?," Occasional Paper Series 230, European Central Bank.
    4. Gabe Chandler & Wolfgang Polonik, 2017. "Residual Empirical Processes and Weighted Sums for Time-Varying Processes with Applications to Testing for Homoscedasticity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 72-98, January.
    5. W. K. Li & T. K. Mak, 1994. "On The Squared Residual Autocorrelations In Non‐Linear Time Series With Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(6), pages 627-636, November.
    6. Allen, Franklin & Gu, Xian & Jagtiani, Julapa, 2022. "Fintech, Cryptocurrencies, and CBDC: Financial Structural Transformation in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Feng Liu & Dong Li & Xinmei Kang, 2018. "Sample path properties of an explosive double autoregressive model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 484-490, May.
    8. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2019. "Robust analysis of the martingale hypothesis," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 17-41.
    9. Borkovec, Milan, 2000. "Extremal behavior of the autoregressive process with ARCH(1) errors," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 189-207, February.
    10. Baumöhl, Eduard & Vyrost, Tomas, 2020. "Stablecoins as a crypto safe haven? Not all of them!," EconStor Preprints 215484, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Chen, Meichen & Qin, Cong & Zhang, Xiaoyu, 2022. "Cryptocurrency price discrepancies under uncertainty: Evidence from COVID-19 and lockdown nexus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
    13. Shiqing Ling, 2004. "Estimation and testing stationarity for double‐autoregressive models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 63-78, February.
    14. Shiqing Ling & Dong Li, 2008. "Asymptotic inference for a nonstationary double AR (1) model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(1), pages 257-263.
    15. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Force, ECB Crypto Assets Task, 2020. "Stablecoins: Implications for monetary policy, financial stability, market infrastructure and payments, and banking supervision in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 247, European Central Bank.
    17. Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Xin-yu & Wu, Hao-yu, 2020. "Are stablecoins truly diversifiers, hedges, or safe havens against traditional cryptocurrencies as their name suggests?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    19. J. Fan & M. Farmen & I. Gijbels, 1998. "Local maximum likelihood estimation and inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(3), pages 591-608.
    20. Tro Kortian, 1995. "Modern Approaches to Asset Price Formation: A Survey of Recent Theoretical Literature," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9501, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Dechert, W D & Gencay, R, 1992. "Lyapunov Exponents as a Nonparametric Diagnostic for Stability Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 41-60, Suppl. De.
    22. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Chaos and Nonlinear Forecastability in Economics and Finance," Finance 9411001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Adachi, Mitsu & Da Silva, Pedro Bento Pereira & Born, Alexandra & Cappuccio, Massimo & Czák-Ludwig, Stephanie & Gschossmann, Isabella & Pellicani, Antonella & Plooij, Mirjam & Paula, Georg & Philipps,, 2022. "Stablecoins’ role in crypto and beyond: functions, risks and policy," Macroprudential Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 18.
    24. Dong Li & Shaojun Guo & Ke Zhu, 2019. "Double AR model without intercept: An alternative to modeling nonstationarity and heteroscedasticity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 319-331, March.
    25. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 318-334, September.
    26. Richard K. Lyons & Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, 2020. "What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?," NBER Working Papers 27136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Annetta Ho & Sriram Darbha & Yuliya Gorelkina & Alejandro García, 2022. "The Relative Benefits and Risks of Stablecoins as a Means of Payment: A Case Study Perspective," Discussion Papers 2022-21, Bank of Canada.
    28. Gabriel Chandler & Wolfgang Polonik, 2012. "Mode Identification of Volatility in Time-Varying Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(499), pages 1217-1229, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Dong & Tao, Yuxin & Yang, Yaxing & Zhang, Rongmao, 2023. "Maximum likelihood estimation for α-stable double autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    2. Guo, Shaojun & Li, Dong & Li, Muyi, 2019. "Strict stationarity testing and GLAD estimation of double autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 319-337.
    3. Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Looking for a safe haven against American stocks during COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Min Chen & Dong Li & Shiqing Ling, 2014. "Non-Stationarity And Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation On A Double Autoregressive Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 189-202, May.
    5. Lyons, Richard K. & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2023. "What keeps stablecoins stable?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Jiang, Feiyu & Li, Dong & Zhu, Ke, 2020. "Non-standard inference for augmented double autoregressive models with null volatility coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 165-183.
    7. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2019. "Risk Measurement," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02119256, HAL.
    8. Feiyu Jiang & Dong Li & Ke Zhu, 2019. "Non-standard inference for augmented double autoregressive models with null volatility coefficients," Papers 1905.01798, arXiv.org.
    9. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2022. "On the role of stablecoins in cryptoasset pricing dynamics," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, December.
    10. Nielsen, Heino Bohn & Rahbek, Anders, 2014. "Unit root vector autoregression with volatility induced stationarity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 144-167.
    11. Zhu, Huafeng & Zhang, Xingfa & Liang, Xin & Li, Yuan, 2017. "On a vector double autoregressive model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 86-95.
    12. Zhu Huafeng & Zhang Xingfa & Liang Xin & Li Yuan, 2018. "Moving Average Model with an Alternative GARCH-Type Error," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 165-177, April.
    13. Stelios Arvanitis & Antonis Demos, 2004. "Time Dependence and Moments of a Family of Time‐Varying Parameter Garch in Mean Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, January.
    14. Dong Li & Shiqing Ling & Rongmao Zhang, 2016. "On a Threshold Double Autoregressive Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 68-80, January.
    15. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2015. "House prices: bubbles, exuberance or something else? Evidence from euro area countries," Working Papers w201517, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Harry-Paul Vander Elst, 2015. "FloGARCH: Realizing Long Memory and Asymmetries in Returns Valitility," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-12, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. Charles, Amélie, 2010. "The day-of-the-week effects on the volatility: The role of the asymmetry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 143-152, April.
    18. Bachar Fakhry & Christian Richter, 2018. "Does the Federal Constitutional Court Ruling Mean the German Financial Market is Efficient?," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 111-125.
    19. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    20. Łęt, Blanka & Sobański, Konrad & Świder, Wojciech & Włosik, Katarzyna, 2023. "What drives the popularity of stablecoins? Measuring the frequency dynamics of connectedness between volatile and stable cryptocurrencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.00509. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.