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Inside the Mind of Investors During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the StockTwits Data

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  • Hasan Fallahgoul

Abstract

We study the investor beliefs, sentiment and disagreement, about stock market returns during the COVID-19 pandemic using a large number of messages of investors on a social media investing platform, \textit{StockTwits}. The rich and multimodal features of StockTwits data allow us to explore the evolution of sentiment and disagreement within and across investors, sectors, and even industries. We find that the sentiment (disagreement) has a sharp decrease (increase) across all investors with any investment philosophy, horizon, and experience between February 19, 2020, and March 23, 2020, where a historical market high followed by a record drop. Surprisingly, these measures have a sharp reverse toward the end of March. However, the performance of these measures across various sectors is heterogeneous. Financial and healthcare sectors are the most pessimistic and optimistic divisions, respectively.

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  • Hasan Fallahgoul, 2020. "Inside the Mind of Investors During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the StockTwits Data," Papers 2004.11686, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.11686
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthew Gentzkow & Bryan Kelly & Matt Taddy, 2019. "Text as Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 535-574, September.
    2. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2020. "Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash," NBER Working Papers 27272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tim Bollerslev & Jia Li & Yuan Xue, 2018. "Volume, Volatility, and Public News Announcements," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2005-2041.
    4. Sean J. Taylor & Benjamin Letham, 2018. "Forecasting at Scale," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 37-45, January.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Daniel Ștefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeș, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-35, September.
    2. Muhammad Khalid Anser & Muhammad Azhar Khan & Khalid Zaman & Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Sameh E. Askar & Muhammad Moinuddin Qazi Abro & Ahmad Kabbani, 2021. "Financial development during COVID-19 pandemic: the role of coronavirus testing and functional labs," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Sun, Yunchuan & Wu, Mengyuan & Zeng, Xiaoping & Peng, Zihan, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market: Sentimental or substantial?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).

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