IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1904.03053.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement approach

Author

Listed:
  • Martine J Barons
  • Willy Aspinall

Abstract

Food insecurity is associated with increased risk for several health conditions and with poor chronic disease management. Key determinants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Whereas short-term household incomes are likely to remain static, increased food prices would be a significant driver of food insecurity. To investigate food price drivers for household food security and its health consequences in the UK under scenarios of Deal and No deal for Brexit . To estimate the 5\% and 95\% quantiles of the projected price distributions. Structured expert judgement elicitation, a well-established method for quantifying uncertainty, using experts. In July 2018, each expert estimated the median, 5\% and 95\% quantiles of changes in price for ten food categories under Brexit Deal and No-deal to June 2020 assuming Brexit had taken place on 29th March 2019. These were aggregated based on the accuracy and informativeness of the experts on calibration questions. Ten specialists in food procurement, retail, agriculture, economics, statistics and household food security. Results: when combined in proportions used to calculate Consumer Prices Index food basket costs, median food price change for Brexit with a Deal is expected to be +6.1\% [90\% credible interval:-3\%, +17\%] and with No deal +22.5\% [+1\%, +52\%]. The number of households experiencing food insecurity and its severity are likely to increase because of expected sizeable increases in median food prices after Brexit. Higher increases are more likely than lower rises and towards the upper limits, these would entail severe impacts. Research showing a low food budget leads to increasingly poor diet suggests that demand for health services in both the short and longer term is likely to increase due to the effects of food insecurity on the incidence and management of diet-sensitive conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Martine J Barons & Willy Aspinall, 2019. "Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement approach," Papers 1904.03053, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1904.03053
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.03053
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ren, Xin & Nane, Gabriela F. & Terwel, Karel C. & van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M., 2024. "Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    2. Coleman, Paul & Dhaif, Fatema & Oyebode, Oyinlola, 2020. "Food shortages, stockpiling and panic buying ahead of Brexit as reported by the British media: a mixed methods content analysis," SocArXiv vfqhn, Center for Open Science.
    3. Martine J. Barons & Thais C. O. Fonseca & Andy Davis & Jim Q. Smith, 2022. "A decision support system for addressing food security in the United Kingdom," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 447-470, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1904.03053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.