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What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer

Author

Listed:
  • Giulia Poce
  • Giulio Cimini
  • Andrea Gabrielli
  • Andrea Zaccaria
  • Giuditta Baldacci
  • Marco Polito
  • Mariangela Rizzo
  • Silvia Sabatini

Abstract

In the last years, increasing efforts have been put into the development of effective stress tests to quantify the resilience of financial institutions. Here we propose a stress test methodology for central counterparties based on a network characterization of clearing members, whose links correspond to direct credits and debits. This network constitutes the ground for the propagation of financial distress: equity losses caused by an initial shock with both exogenous and endogenous components reverberate within the network and are amplified through credit and liquidity contagion channels. At the end of the dynamics, we determine the vulnerability of each clearing member, which represents its potential equity loss. We apply the proposed framework to the Fixed Income asset class of CC&G, the central counterparty operating in Italy whose main cleared securities are Italian Government Bonds. We consider two different scenarios: a distributed, plausible initial shock, as well as a shock corresponding to the cover 2 regulatory requirement (the simultaneous default of the two most exposed clearing members). Although the two situations lead to similar results after an unlimited reverberation of shocks on the network, the distress propagation is much more hasty in the latter case, with a large number of additional defaults triggered at early stages of the dynamics. Our results thus show that setting a default fund to cover insolvencies only on a cover 2 basis may not be adequate for taming systemic events, and only very conservative default funds, such as CC&G's one, can face total losses due to the shock propagation. Overall, our network-based stress test represents a refined tool for calibrating default fund amounts.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulia Poce & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria & Giuditta Baldacci & Marco Polito & Mariangela Rizzo & Silvia Sabatini, 2016. "What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer," Papers 1611.03782, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1611.03782
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    1. Paddrick, Mark & Young, H. Peyton, 2021. "How safe are central counterparties in credit default swap markets?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Mark Paddrik & H. Peyton Young, 2017. "How Safe are Central Counterparties in Derivatives Markets?," Working Papers 17-06, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    3. H Peyton Young & Mark Paddrik, 2019. "How Safe are Central Counterparties in Credit Default Swap Markets?," Economics Series Working Papers 885, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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