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The formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge

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  • Yuri Biondi
  • Pierpaolo Giannoccolo
  • Serge Galam

Abstract

Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share Exchange over time. Our model relaxes that heroic assumption of one unique "true value" and deals with the formation of share market prices through the dynamic formation of individual and social opinions (or beliefs) based upon a fundamental signal of economic performance and position of the firm, the forecast revision by heterogeneous individual investors, and their social mood or sentiment about the ongoing state of the market pricing process. Market clearing price formation is then featured by individual and group dynamics that make its collective dimension irreducible to its individual level. This dynamic holistic approach can be applied to better understand the market exuberance generated by the Share Exchange over time.

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  • Yuri Biondi & Pierpaolo Giannoccolo & Serge Galam, 2011. "The formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Papers 1105.3228, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1105.3228
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    2. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Ioannis Vrontos & Petros Dellaportas & Serge Galam, 2014. "Communication impacting financial markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01215750, HAL.
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    6. Galam, Serge, 2016. "The invisible hand and the rational agent are behind bubbles and crashes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 209-217.
    7. Chakrabarty, Anindya & De, Anupam & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2015. "Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 45-61.
    8. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2013. "What does the financial market pricing do? A simulation analysis with a view to systemic volatility, exuberance and vagary," Papers 1312.7460, arXiv.org.
    9. Kanamura, Takashi & Bunn, Derek W., 2022. "Market making and electricity price formation in Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    10. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2015. "Much ado about making money:The impact of disclosure, news and rumors over the formation of security market prices over time," Department of Economics 0075, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    11. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Ioannis D. Vrontos & Petros Dellaportas & Serge Galam, 2015. "A Socio-Finance Model: Inference and empirical application," SciencePo Working papers Main halshs-01242248, HAL.
    12. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    13. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2020. "Much ado about making money: the impact of disclosure, news and rumors on the formation of security market prices over time," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(2), pages 333-362, April.
    14. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Ioannis Vrontos & Petros Dellaportas & Serge Galam, 2014. "A Socio-Finance Model: Inference and empirical application," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01215605, HAL.
    15. Larry Bensimhon & Yuri Biondi, 2013. "Financial Bubbles, Common Knowledge and Alternative Accounting Regimes: An Experimental Analysis of Artificial Spot Security Markets," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 3, pages 21-59, December.
    16. Anindya Chakrabarty & Anupam De & Gautam Bandyopadhyay, 2016. "Horizon heterogeneity, institutional constraint and managerial myopia: a multi-frequency perspective on ELSS," International Journal of Business Excellence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 18-47.
    17. Chernin Yulia & Lahav Yaron, 2014. "“The People Demand Social Justice”A Case Study on the Impact of Protests on Financial Markets," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 99-121, July.
    18. Yuri Biondi & Pierpaolo Giannoccolo, 2015. "Share price formation, market exuberance and financial stability under alternative accounting regimes," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 333-362, October.
    19. Zhang, Ting & Li, Honggang, 2013. "Buying on margin, selling short in an agent-based market model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(18), pages 4075-4082.

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