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Understanding Interpersonal Violence: the Impact of Temperatures in Mexico

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  • Cohen, Francois
  • Gonzalez, Fidel

Abstract

We estimate the effect of temperature on criminality in Mexico and question conventional wisdom that high temperatures impact human psychology. Using high-frequency data, we find a linear effect of temperatures on criminality, inconsistent with the belief that only high temperatures cause disturbances. A significant share of weather-related crimes can be explained by higher alcohol consumption (9%) and changes in time allocation during weekends (17%). Also, 28% of weather-related crimes are committed at night, when temperatures are mild, and a third is driven by short-term displacements, causing no additional victim.

Suggested Citation

  • Cohen, Francois & Gonzalez, Fidel, 2018. "Understanding Interpersonal Violence: the Impact of Temperatures in Mexico," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-01, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:amz:wpaper:2018-01
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    File URL: https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/Criminality_paper_WP_version_2018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Malvina Bondy & Sefi Roth & Lutz Sager, 2020. "Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 555-585.
    2. Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Bruederle, Anna & Roberts, Gareth, 2022. "Weather and Crime—Cautious evidence from South Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2021. "Murder nature weather and violent crime in Brazil," Discussion Papers 2021/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. Ceren Baysan & Marshall Burke & Felipe González & Solomon Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Economic and Non-Economic Factors in Violence: Evidence from Organized Crime, Suicides and Climate in Mexico," NBER Working Papers 24897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Blakeslee, David & Chaurey, Ritam & Fishman, Ram & Malghan, Deepak & Malik, Samreen, 2021. "In the heat of the moment: Economic and non-economic drivers of the weather-crime relationship," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 832-856.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    extreme weather events; temperature; criminality; distributed lag model; routine activity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • K49 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Other
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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