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Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth

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  • Clements, Michael P.

Abstract

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconÖdent at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," Economic Research Papers 270629, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:270629
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.270629
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    Cited by:

    1. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.

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    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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