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Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts

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  • Clements, Michael P.

Abstract

A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of ináation and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this Önding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delayed updating, and asymmetric loss. We also consider the relative accuracy of the two sets of forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269881, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:269881
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269881
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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