International Food Security Assessment, 2022–32

Millions of people around the world are food insecure and do not have access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs for an active and healthy life. Using a demand-driven international food security assessment model, this report helps the U.S. Department of Agriculture and its stakeholders estimate food security trends in 77 low- and middle-income countries. Food security in countries covered in the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) report is expected to deteriorate in 2022 due to the continued effects of the Coronavirus 2019 pandemic and high food commodity prices that have been intensified by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. The number of food insecure people in 2022 is estimated at 1.3 billion in the 77 low- and middle-income countries covered by this assessment, an increase of 9.8 percent (118.7 million people) from the 2021 estimate. This increase implies that 32.9 percent of the population of the countries in the assessment may be unable to consume 2,100 kilocalories a day, an average caloric level necessary to sustain a healthy and active lifestyle. However, over the next 10 years, food security is projected to improve in all countries analyzed by this assessment. By 2032, the number of food insecure people in the 77 IFSA countries is projected to be 577.3 million and falling to 12.4 percent of the population (62.5 percent less than in 2022). Given the evolving nature of the conflict in Ukraine and a rapidly changing global macroeconomic environment, the estimation results presented in this report are more representative of a conservative scenario.