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Unpacking the Agricultural Black Box: The Rise and Fall of American Farm Productivity Growth

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  • Pardey, Philip G.
  • Alston, Julian M.

Abstract

Has the golden age of U.S. agricultural productivity growth ended? We analyze the detailed patterns of productivity growth spanning a century of profound changes in American agriculture. We document a substantial slowing of U.S. farm productivity growth, following a late mid-century surge—20 years after the surge and slowdown in U.S. industrial productivity growth. We posit and empirically probe three related explanations for this farm productivity surge-slowdown: the time path of agricultural R&D-driven knowledge stocks; a big wave of technological progress associated with great clusters of inventions; and dynamic aspects of the structural transformation of agriculture, largely completed by 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M., 2024. "Unpacking the Agricultural Black Box: The Rise and Fall of American Farm Productivity Growth," Staff Papers 342428, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:umaesp:342428
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.342428
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