IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uersrr/327180.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Morgan, Stephen
  • Arita, Shawn
  • Beckman, Jayson
  • Ahsan, Saquib
  • Russell, Dylan
  • Jarrell, Philip
  • Kenner, Bart

Abstract

In 2018, the United States imposed Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from major trading partners and separately Section 301 tariffs on a broad range of imports from China. In response to these actions, six trading partners—Canada, China, the European Union, India, Mexico, and Turkey—responded with retaliatory tariffs on a range of U.S. agricultural exports, including agricultural and food products. The agricultural products targeted for retaliation were valued at $30.4 billion in 2017, with individual product lines experiencing tariff increases ranging from 2 to 140 percent. This report provides a detailed look at the impact of retaliatory tariffs by State and commodity and estimates the direct export losses associated with the trade conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Morgan, Stephen & Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson & Ahsan, Saquib & Russell, Dylan & Jarrell, Philip & Kenner, Bart, 2022. "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture," Economic Research Report 327180, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:327180
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.327180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/327180/files/err-304.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.327180?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Colin A. Carter & Sandro Steinbach, 2020. "The Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Trade," NBER Working Papers 27147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Edward J. Balistreri & Wendong Zhang & John Beghin, 2020. "The State-level Burden of the Trade War: Interactions between the Market Facilitation Program and Tariffs," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2020-1, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    3. Arita, Shawn & Grant, Jason & Sydow, Sharon & Beckman, Jayson, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient Under COVID-19? Lessons from an Econometric Assessment," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315888, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Liu, Bing & Hudson, Darren, 2019. "A Preliminary Analysis of the Effects of China’s Cotton Tariff on the Chinese and U.S. Cotton Markets," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 20(1), June.
    5. Nti, Frank Kyekyeku & Kuberka, Lindsay & Jones, Keithly, 2019. "Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on the U.S. Pork Sector," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(4).
    6. Swanson, Krista & Coppess, Jonathan & Schnitkey, Gary & Zulauf, Carl, 2019. "The Trade Conflict – Impact on Illinois Agriculture in 2018," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 9(075), April.
    7. Adjemian, Michael K. & Arita, Shawn & Breneman, Vince & Johansson, Rob & Williams, Ryan, 2019. "Tariff Retaliation Weakened the U.S. Soybean Basis," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(4).
    8. Joseph P. Janzen & Nathan P. Hendricks, 2020. "Are Farmers Made Whole by Trade Aid?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 205-226, June.
    9. Edward J. Balistreri & Chad E. Hart & Dermot J. Hayes & Minghao Li & Lee L. Schulz & David A. Swenson & Wendong Zhang & John M. Crespi, 2018. "The Impact of the 2018 Trade Disruptions on the Iowa Economy," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 18-pb25, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    10. Muhammad, Andrew & Smith, S. Aaron, 2018. "Evaluating the Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Soybeans in China," Extension Reports 302908, University of Tennessee, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    11. Edward J. Balistreri & Chad E. Hart & Dermot J. Hayes & Minghao Li & Lee Schulz & David A. Swenson & Wendong Zhang & John M. Crespi, 2018. "The Impact of the 2018 Trade Disruptions on the Iowa Economy," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 18-pb25, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    12. Westhoff, Patrick & Davids, Tracy & Soon, Byung Min, 2019. "Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(4).
    13. Grant, Jason & Arita, Shawn & Emlinger, Charlotte & Sydow, Sharon & Marchant, Mary A., 2019. "The 2018–2019 Trade Conflict: A One-Year Assessment and Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Exports," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(4).
    14. Shawn Arita & Jason Grant & Sharon Sydow & Jayson Beckman, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient under COVID-19? Findings from an Econometric Assessment of 2020," NBER Chapters, in: Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Steven Zahniser & Tom Hertz & Monica Argoti, 2016. "Quantifying the Effects of Mexico's Retaliatory Tariffs on Selected U.S. Agricultural Exports," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 93-112.
    16. Hitchner, Joanna & Menzie, Keith & Meyer, Seth, 2019. "Tariff Impacts on Global Soybean Trade Patterns and U.S. Planting Decisions," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(4).
    17. Sabala, Ethan & Devadoss, Stephen, 2019. "Impacts of Chinese Tariff on World Soybean Markets," 2019 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2019, Birmingham, Alabama 285029, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    18. Jayson Beckman & Amanda M. Countryman, 2021. "The Importance of Agriculture in the Economy: Impacts from COVID‐19," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1595-1611, October.
    19. Amani Elobeid & Miguel Carriquiry & David Swenson & Dermot Hayes, 2019. "Analysis of the Effects of Chinese and Mexican Retaliatory Tariffs on Select U.S. Agricultural Commodities on U.S. and Global Markets," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-22, Instituto de Economia - IECON.
    20. Muhammad, Andrew & Smith, S. A. & MacDonald, Stephen, 2019. "How Has the Trade Dispute Affected the U.S. Cotton Sector?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(4).
    21. Sabala, Ethan & Devadoss, Stephen, 2019. "Impacts of Chinese Tariff on World Soybean Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(2), May.
    22. Arita, Shawn & Grant, Jason & Sydow, Sharon & Beckman, Jayson, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient Under Coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an Econometric Assessment," Working Papers 311216, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    23. Taheripour, Farzad & Tyner, Wallace E., 2018. "Impacts of Possible Chinese 25% Tariff on U.S. Soybeans and Other Agricultural Commodities," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), June.
    24. Countryman, Amanda M. & Muhammad, Andrew, 2018. "Chinese Trade Retaliation May Diminish U.S. Wine Export Potential," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), June.
    25. Sumner, Daniel A. & Hanon, Tristan & Matthews, William A., 2019. "Implication of Trade Policy Turmoil for Perennial Crops," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(4).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jelliffe, Jeremy & Gerval, Adam & Husby, Megan & Jarrell, Philip & Williams, Brian, 2023. "United Kingdom Agricultural Production and Trade Policy Post-Brexit," USDA Miscellaneous 333547, United States Department of Agriculture.
    2. David J. Williams & Brady E. Brewer & Jessica E. Todd, 2022. "Farm households' consumption of ad hoc program payments," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1465-1481, September.
    3. Valdes, Constanza & Gillespie, Jeffrey & Dohlman, Erik, 2023. "Soybean Production, Marketing Costs, and Export Competitiveness in Brazil and the United States," Economic Information Bulletin 340506, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Morgan, Stephen N. & Padilla, Samantha, 2024. "Resolving Trade Conflicts: Agricultural Trade and the Lifting of Retaliatory Tariffs," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343749, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Winters-Michaud, Clayton P. & Haro, Alfredo & Callahan, Scott & Bigelow, Daniel P., 2024. "Major Uses of Land in the United States, 2017," Economic Information Bulletin 345316, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Ufer, Danielle J. & Padilla, Samantha & Link, Noah, 2023. "U.S. Trade Performance and Position in Global Meat, Poultry, and Dairy Exports," USDA Miscellaneous 335422, United States Department of Agriculture.
    7. Padilla, Samantha & Ufer, Danielle J. & Morgan, Stephen & Link, Noah, 2023. "U.S. Export Competitiveness in Select Crop Markets," USDA Miscellaneous 333553, United States Department of Agriculture.
    8. repec:ags:aaea22:337402 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason H. Grant & Shawn Arita & Charlotte Emlinger & Robert Johansson & Chaoping Xie, 2021. "Agricultural exports and retaliatory trade actions: An empirical assessment of the 2018/2019 trade conflict," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 619-640, June.
    2. Munisamy Gopinath, 2021. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Agriculture?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 604-618, June.
    3. repec:ags:aaea22:335549 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Adjemian, Michael K. & Smith, Aaron & He, Wendi, 2021. "Estimating the market effect of a trade war: The case of soybean tariffs," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. Amani Elobeid & Miguel Carriquiry & Jerome Dumortier & David Swenson & Dermot J. Hayes, 2021. "China‐U.S. trade dispute and its impact on global agricultural markets, the U.S. economy, and greenhouse gas emissions," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 647-672, September.
    6. Lee, Meongsu & Westhoff, Patrick, 2020. "The U.S.-China Trade war and Impact on Land Returning to Soybean Production from the Conservation Reserve Program," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304518, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Joseph P. Janzen & Nathan P. Hendricks, 2020. "Are Farmers Made Whole by Trade Aid?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 205-226, June.
    8. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Wendong Zhang, 2021. "The Case for Healthy U.S.‐China Agricultural Trade Relations despite Deglobalization Pressures," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 225-247, March.
    10. Wijesinghe, Asanka S., 2020. "Retaliatory Tariff and 2018 Mid Term Election: Was there an effect of Chinese soybeans Tariff ?," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304505, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. William Ridley & Stephen Devadoss, 2023. "Competition and trade policy in the world cotton market: Implications for US cotton exports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1365-1387, October.
    12. Jason H. Grant & Kathryn A. Boys & Chaoping Xie, 2021. "A new president in the White House: implications for Canadian agricultural trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(1), pages 45-58, March.
    13. Morgan, Stephen N. & Padilla, Samantha, 2024. "Resolving Trade Conflicts: Agricultural Trade and the Lifting of Retaliatory Tariffs," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343749, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Asci, Serhat & Ramaswamy, Karthik & Devadoss, Stephen & Konduru, Srinivasa P., 2020. "Modern Time Trade Wars: Chinese Retaliatory Tariffs vs California’s Tree Nuts industry," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Shipping Container Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Working Papers 320397, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    16. Chen, Le & Boyer, Christopher N. & Smith, Aaron, 2024. "Ad Hoc and Farm Bill Payments Impact on Non-Real Estate Farm Debt," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343617, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Gu, Xin & Zhang, Weiqiang & Cheng, Sang, 2021. "How do investors in Chinese stock market react to external uncertainty? An event study to the Sino-US disputes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Andrew Muhammad & Stephen A. Smith & Jason H. Grant, 2022. "Can China meet its purchase obligations under the Phase One Trade Agreement?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1393-1408, September.
    19. John C. Beghin & Heidi Schweizer, 2021. "Agricultural Trade Costs," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 500-530, June.
    20. Joseph W. Glauber, 2021. "US Trade Aid Payments and the WTO," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 586-603, June.
    21. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Container Trade Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322364, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:327180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.