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The Impact of US Biofuel Policies on Agricultural Price Levels and Volatility

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  • Babcock, Bruce A.

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the market impacts of US biofuels and biofuel policies. Design/methodology/approach - Two methods of analysis are employed. The first method looks back in time and estimates what US crop prices would have been during the 2005 to 2009 marketing years under two scenarios. The second method of analysis is forward looking and examines the market impacts of the blender tax credit and mandate on the distribution of prices in the 2011 calendar and marketing year. Findings - The results developed in the previous two sections show that US ethanol policies modestly increased maize prices from 2006 to 2009 and that market impacts of the policies will be larger under tighter market conditions. Practical implications - More flexible US biofuel policy including removing the blenders tax credit, which does not help US biofuel industry as long as the mandates are in place, and relaxing blending mandates when feedstock supplies are low. Originality/value - This report makes three contributions to understanding the extent to which US biofuel policies contribute to higher agricultural and food prices. First, estimates of the impact of US ethanol policies on crop and food prices reveal that the impacts of the subsidies were quite modest. The second contribution is to provide estimates of the impact on agricultural commodity prices and food prices from market‐driven expansion of ethanol. The final contribution of this report is improved insight into how current US biofuel policies are expected to affect crop prices in the near future.
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Suggested Citation

  • Babcock, Bruce A., 2011. "The Impact of US Biofuel Policies on Agricultural Price Levels and Volatility," Price Volatility and Beyond 320192, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ictdpv:320192
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.320192
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    Cited by:

    1. Héctor M. Núñez & Andrés Trujillo-Barrera, 2015. "Impact of U.S. Biofuel Policy in the Presence of Drastic Climate Conditions," Working Papers DTE 585, CIDE, División de Economía.
    2. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Mallory, Mindy L. & Garcia, Philip, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in U.S. Crude Oil, Ethanol, and Corn Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Chimaliro, Aubrey Victor, 2018. "Analysis of main determinants of soya bean price volatility in Malawi," Research Theses 334743, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    4. Stewart, Shamar L. & Isengildina Massa, Olga, 2024. "Food & Oil Price Volatility Dynamics: Insights from a TVP-SVAR-DCC-MIDAS Model," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343936, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    6. Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2016. "Modelling futures price volatility in energy markets: Is there a role for financial speculation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 220-229.
    7. Taheripour, Farzad & Tyner, Wally, 2019. "Renewable Fuel Standard: Implications for Land Use Changes in Malaysia and Indonesia," Conference papers 333107, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. F. Benedetto & L. Mastroeni & P. Vellucci, 2021. "Modeling the flow of information between financial time-series by an entropy-based approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1235-1252, April.
    10. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Di Gioia, Leonardo & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2021. "Price responsiveness of supply and acreage in the EU vegetable oil markets: Policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    11. Emiliano Magrini & Ayca Donmez, 2013. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," JRC Research Reports JRC84138, Joint Research Centre.
    12. Wang, Zidong & Fan, Xin Xin & Liu, Pan & Dharmasena, Senarath, 2016. "Demand for Ethanol in the Face of Blend Wall: Is it a Complement or a Substitute for Conventional Transportation Fuel in the United States?," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229960, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. Timothy A. Wise, 2012. "The Cost to Mexico of U.S. Corn Ethanol Expansion," GDAE Working Papers 12-01, GDAE, Tufts University.
    14. Ojogho, Osaihiomwan & Egware, Robert Awotu, 2015. "Price Generating Process And Volatility In Nigerian Agricultural Commodities Market," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, October.
    15. Hochman, Gal & Kaplan, Scott & Zilberman, David, 2013. "The Causes of Recent Food Commodity Crises," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150423, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Miljkovic, Dragan & Ripplinger, David & Shaik, Saleem, 2016. "Impact of biofuel policies on the use of land and energy in U.S. agriculture," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1089-1098.
    17. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Chevallier, Julien & Guesmi, Khaled, 2017. "“De-financialization” of commodities? Evidence from stock, crude oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 228-239.
    18. Ning, Zhuo & Sun, Changyou, 2019. "Carbon sequestration and biofuel production on forestland under three stochastic prices," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Newes, Emily & Clark, Christopher M. & Vimmerstedt, Laura & Peterson, Steve & Burkholder, Dallas & Korotney, David & Inman, Daniel, 2022. "Ethanol production in the United States: The roles of policy, price, and demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    20. Kafle, Kashi R. & Pullabhotla, Hemant K, 2014. "Food for the Stomach or Fuel for the Tank: What do Prices Tell Us?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170273, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Cui, Hao (David) & Tyner, Wally, 2017. "Modeling Land Intensification Response in GTAP: Implications for Biofuels Induced Land Use Change," Conference papers 332812, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    22. Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Hepburn, Jonathan, 2016. "Trade, Food Security, and the 2030 Agenda," Agenda 2030 320097, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    23. Britz, Wolfgang & Li, Jingwen & Shang, Linmei, 2021. "Combining large-scale sensitivity analysis in Computable General Equilibrium models with Machine Learning: An Example Application to policy supporting the bio-economy," Conference papers 333285, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    24. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Soltanisehat, Leili, 2020. "Outlook on biofuels in future studies: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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