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Ost-West-Migrations-Potential: Wie Gross Ist Es?

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  • Straubhaar, Thomas

Abstract

Wie viele Menschen aus den mittel- und osteuropäischen Ländern (MOEL) werden von dem mit dem EU-Beitritt verbundenen Recht auf Freizügigkeit Gebrauch machen und nach Westen in die "alten" EU-Länder wandern? Die vorgestellten Simulationen ergeben eine Bandbreite für das Ost-West-Migrationspotential in der Grössenordnung von brutto jährlich 0,2% bis 0,4% der mittel- und osteuropäischen Bevölkerung, die bei einer Nettobetrachtung (unter Einbezug der Rückwanderungen) auf rund 0,1% der Bevölkerung schmilzt. Hochgerechnet auf eine erste EU-Erweiterungswelle, ergibt sich für die MOEL-8 (Slowenien, Tschechien, Ungarn, Slowakei, Polen, Estland, Litauen, Lettland) ein Ost-West-Migrations-potential, das in 15 Jahren brutto etwa 3%-4% und netto etwa die Hälfte, nämlich 1½%-2% der Bevölkerung der MOEL-8 erreicht. Dies sind rund 3 Millionen Menschen (brutto) bzw. 1-1½ Millionen Menschen (netto). Anders herum gesehen, entsprechen diese drei Millionen Menschen gerade einmal 0,8 % der EU-Bevölkerung. Mit Blick auf die zu erwartende Schrumpfung der Bevölkerung in den heutigen EU-15 Ländern und dem damit einhergehenden Alterungsprozess dürften diese Zuwanderungsbewegungen kaum negativ ins Gewicht fallen. Von einer "Völkerwanderung" kann also keine Rede sein! How many people from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) will go West making use of the free movement of people after the EU East enlargement? An extrapolation of the empirical experience of the EU South enlargement shows that the emigration potential might reach a corridor between 0.2% to 0.4% of total CEEC-population per year. Annual net migraton (including return migration) might be about 0.1% of total CEEC-population. If we assume that in a first wave 8 countries from CEEC will become EU members (i.e. Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia), the East-West migration potential will be about 3%-4% (gross) and 1½%-2% (net) of the total CEEC-population within the first 15 years after accession. This is about 3 million people (gross) resp. 1 to 1.5 million people (net) or about 0.8% of the total EU population. Therefore, fears of "mass migration" seem highly exaggerated. Muchmore, with regard to the decline of the EU population and the ageing of the society the expected East-West-migration potentials will generate rather positive consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Straubhaar, Thomas, 2001. "Ost-West-Migrations-Potential: Wie Gross Ist Es?," Discussion Paper Series 26334, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26334
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.26334
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    1. Lundborg, Per, 2006. "EU enlargement, migration and labour market institutions," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 24-34.
    2. Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2006. "Estimating and forecasting European migration : methods, problems and results," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 35-56.
    3. Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Martin Werding, 2004. "EU-Osterweiterung und Zuwanderung nach Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages .16-26, April.
    4. Bruder, Jana, 2003. "East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 40, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    5. Frohberg, Klaus & Weber, Gerald, 2002. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung im Agrarbereich," IAMO Discussion Papers 42, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    6. Michael Knogler & Volkhart Vincentz, 2005. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf die Arbeitsmärkte der neuen Mitgliedstaaten und der EU-15, insbesondere Deutschland," Working Papers 257, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    7. Norbert Berthold & Michael Neumann & Gerd Andres, 2006. "Sollte an den Übergangsbestimmungen zur Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit festgehalten werden?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(05), pages 03-10, March.
    8. Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Martin Werding, 2004. "EU-Osterweiterung und Zuwanderung nach Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 16-26, 04.
    9. Andrea Grabmayer & Andrea Hartmann & Maria Thalhammer, 2009. "Labour Mobility within the EU in the Context of Enlargement and the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 35641, April.
    10. Marcus Dittrich & Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Gunther Markwardt & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Marcel Thum, 2004. "Demographische Entwicklung im Freistaat Sachsen : Analyse und Strategien zum Bevölkerungsrückgang auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ; Gutachten im Auftrag der Sächsischen Staatskanzlei," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, May.
    11. Lippert, Inge, 2006. "Niedriglohnstrategien im Hochlohnsektor: Öffnung des Arbeitsmarktes und Beschäftigung von MOE-Arbeitskräften in der Metall- und Elektroindustrie," Arbeitspapiere 129, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    12. Foders, Federico, 2004. "Zuwanderungspolitik in Europa: Begrenzung, Steuerung oder Förderung der Migration?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3261, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. David Hofman, 2010. "Mitigating the Impact of Natural Disasters on Public Finance," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(2), pages 36-42, July.
    14. Dickmann, Nicola, 2004. "Ein demographisches Porträt der osteuropäischen Beitrittsländer," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 31(1), pages 21-26.
    15. Milan Palát, 2013. "International migration and unemployment in established member countries of the European Union," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(7), pages 2603-2610.

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