IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/hwwadp/26227.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Die Real-Business-Cycle Theorie und ihre Relevanz fur die Konjunkturanalyse

Author

Listed:
  • Lucke, Bernd

Abstract

Die Real-Business-Cycle-Theorie hat ihren Ursprung in zwei vor rund 20 Jahren erschienenen Artikeln von Kydland und Prescott (1982) sowie Long und Plosser (1983). Diese Artikel wirkten zur Zeit ihres Erscheinens revolutionär, denn sowohl inhaltlich als auch methodisch lagen sie weit abseits des Spektrums tradierter Konjunkturtheorie. Anstelle einer eingehenden Diskussion sei hier nur kurz erwähnt, dass trotz ihrer gewaltigen Heterogenität die traditionelle Konjunkturtheorie zumindest stillschweigend eine weitgehende Einigkeit darüber erzielt hatte, dass zur Erklärung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Fluktuationen auf irgendwelche ?Unvollkommenheiten? abzustellen sei – wobei ?Unvollkommenheiten? hier als Abweichungen von den idealtypisierenden Annahmen der Arrow-Debreu-Welt aufzufassen sind. Dissens herrschte lediglich über die Art der ?Unvollkommenheiten? und über ihre Wirkungen. So betonen traditionelle (IS-LM)-Keynesianik und die so genannte Neu-Keynesianik (die im übrigen wenig miteinander gemein haben), die Bedeutung von Lohn- und/oder Preisstarrheiten oder die Bedeutung von Anpassungskosten z. B. beim Investitionsverhalten. Die in der Regel als ideologisch konträr zum Keynesianismus aufgefassten Schulen des Monetarismus und der neuen klassischen Makroökonomie postulieren Unvollkommenheiten, indem sie unvollständige und gelegentlich asymmetrische Information annehmen. Eine Vielzahl von Modellen der unterschiedlichsten Schulen spezifiziert Phillipskurven oder andere Mechanismen beschränkter Rationalität bzw. beschränkt rationaler Erwartungen. Man vergleiche in diesem Zusammenhang z. B. zahlreiche Modelle politischer Konjunkturzyklen. Postkeynesianische Modelle z. B. des berühmten Goodwin-Typs modellieren Heterogenitäten zwischen den Agenten, so dass konjunkturelle Fluktuationen auf distributive Effekte (Verteilungskämpfe) zurückgeführt werden. Eine andere recht heterogene Modellklasse, die von Kaldor bis zu den so genannten Sonnenfleckenmodellen reicht, unterstellt Instabi
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Lucke, Bernd, 2002. "Die Real-Business-Cycle Theorie und ihre Relevanz fur die Konjunkturanalyse," Discussion Paper Series 26227, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26227
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.26227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/26227/files/dp020178.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.26227?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    3. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1996. "The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-85, Winter.
    4. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    5. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1.
    6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    7. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    8. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Chapters, in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870, pages 1-23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lucke, Bernd & Gaggermeier, Christian, 2001. "On the identifiability of Euler equation estimates under saddlepath stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 155-163, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Graff, 2005. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," KOF Working papers 05-108, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Graff Michael, 2006. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde / International Business Cycles," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(4), pages 385-417, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magalhães, Matheus Albergaria de & Picchetti, Paulo, 2005. "Regress and Progress! An Econometric Characterization of the Short-Run Relationship between Productivity and Labor Input in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(2), November.
    2. Altig, David E & Carlstrom, Charles T & Lansing, Kevin J, 1995. "Computable General Equilibrium Models and Monetary Policy Advice," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1472-1493, November.
    3. Dridi, Ramdan & Guay, Alain & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Indirect inference and calibration of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 397-430, February.
    4. Cherrier, Beatrice & Duarte, Pedro Garcia & Saïdi, Aurélien, 2023. "Household heterogeneity in macroeconomic models: A historical perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Cochrane, John H., 1994. "Shocks," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 295-364, December.
    6. Smith, Gregor W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1997. "Real business-cycle realizations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 243-280, December.
    7. Ferdinand Fichtner, 2003. "Germany and the European Business Cycle - An Analysis of Causal Relations in an International Real Business Cycle Model," IWP Discussion Paper Series 01/2003, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.
    8. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    9. George-Marios Angeletos & Jennifer La'O, 2010. "Noisy Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 319-378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Beatrice Cherrier & Pedro Garcia Duarte & Aurélien Saïdi, 2023. "Household Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic Models: A Historical Perspective," Post-Print hal-04108500, HAL.
    11. Peter Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2008. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 473-492, July.
    12. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Schorfheide, Frank & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Kryshko, Maxym & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2012. "Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 826-846.
    13. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    14. Hansen, Gary D., 1997. "Technical progress and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1005-1023, June.
    15. F.A.G. den Butter & S.J. Koopman, 1997. "Interaction between Supply and Demand Shocks in Production and Employment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-052/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Ambler, Steve & Guay, Alain & Phaneuf, Louis, 2012. "Endogenous business cycle propagation and the persistence problem: The role of labor-market frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 47-62.
    17. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Frank Schorfheide & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Maxym Kryshko & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2009. "Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours," NBER Working Papers 15375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    19. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2007. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of ( S , s ) Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1165-1188, September.
    20. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Economy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hwwaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.