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Cereal Crop Productivity in Developing Countries: Past Trends and Future Prospects

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  • Pingali, Prabhu L.
  • Heisey, Paul W.

Abstract

This paper synthesizes the evidence on cereal crop productivity in developing countries over the past 30 years and looks at future prospects for productivity growth. For more than three decades we have witnessed the phenomenal growth of cereal crop productivity in the developing world. Termed the Green Revolution, the initial phase of this growth resulted from an increase in land productivity and occurred in areas of growing land scarcity and/or areas with high land values. Significant investments in research and infrastructure development, especially irrigation, were the strategic components of this increased productivity. In the post-Green Revolution period, particularly in Asia, productivity growth has been sustained through increased input use and, more recently, through more efficient use of inputs. Lately, however, indicators show a decrease in the growth rate of productivity of two of the three primary cereals, rice and wheat. The first two sections of this paper present trends on cereal crop productivity in developing countries over the last three decades. Supporting evidence includes yield and other partial factor productivity trends and a summary of studies on total factor productivity. The third section speculates on the prospects for future growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Pingali, Prabhu L. & Heisey, Paul W., 1999. "Cereal Crop Productivity in Developing Countries: Past Trends and Future Prospects," Economics Working Papers 7682, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:cimmew:7682
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7682
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    2. Arega D. Alene & V. M. Manyong, 2006. "Farmer‐to‐farmer technology diffusion and yield variation among adopters: the case of improved cowpea in northern Nigeria," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(2), pages 203-211, September.
    3. Aldas Janaiah & Lalith Achoth & Cynthia Bantilan, 2005. "Has the Green Revolution Bypassed Coarse Cereals? The Indian Experience," The Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, vol. 2(1), pages 20-31.
    4. Murgai, Rinku, 2001. "The Green Revolution and the productivity paradox: evidence from the Indian Punjab," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 199-209, September.
    5. Supawat Rungsuriyawiboon & Xiaobing Wang, 2009. "Agricultural productivity growth in traditional and transitional economies in Asia," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 23(2), pages 52-72, November.
    6. Michael Lipton, 2001. "Reviving global poverty reduction: what role for genetically modified plants?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 823-846.
    7. Bennett, J., 2003. "Opportunities for increasing water productivity of CGIAR crops through plant breeding and molecular biology," IWMI Books, Reports H032638, International Water Management Institute.
    8. Deokae Tai Balasaheb, 2013. "Quantification of Yield Gaps in Different Planting Types of Sugarcane in Maharashtra," Working Papers id:5373, eSocialSciences.
    9. Wirsenius, Stefan & Azar, Christian & Berndes, Göran, 2010. "How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 621-638, November.
    10. Alessandra Pelloni & Thanasis Stengos & Ilaria Tedesco, 2018. "Aid to agriculture, trade and take-off," Working Paper series 18-04, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Chahal, S.S. & Sidhu, M.S. & Parminder, Kaur, 2012. "Impact Assessment of Reuters Market Light (RML) in Agricultural Information Dissemination in Punjab," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 25(Conferenc).
    12. Aldas JANAIAH & Mahabub HOSSAIN & Keijiro OTSUKA, 2006. "Productivity Impact Of The Modern Varieties Of Rice In India," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(2), pages 190-207, June.
    13. Adlas, J. & Achoth, Lalith, 2006. "Is the Green Revolution Vanishing? Empirical Evidence from TFP Analysis for Rice," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25561, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Quantification of yield gaps in different planting types of sugarcane in Maharashtra, 2013. "Balasaheb, Deokate Tai," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2013-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    15. Beddow, Jason M. & Hurley, Terrance M. & Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M., 2015. "Rethinking yield gaps," Staff Papers 201093, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
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