IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea09/49436.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What are the long-term drivers of food prices? Investigating improvements in the accuracy of prediction intervals for the forecast of food prices

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin, Catherine
  • Houee-Bigot, Magalie
  • Tavera, Christophe

Abstract

Over the last few years, the prices of the main agricultural raw materials have been highly volatile. The situation is unprecedented, both in the magnitude of the upward and downward volatility observed, and in the number of agricultural commodities affected. Various factors are contributing to these contrasting shifts: the role of emerging countries, changing dietary habits, an increase in energy demand related to the boom in biofuels, adverse weather conditions and speculation. In this paper we try to capture long-term relationships between crop prices and crude oil price using a partial equilibrium and times series method. The study finds little empirical evidence that the crude oil price have a significant influence on the variation of major vegetable crops prices

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin, Catherine & Houee-Bigot, Magalie & Tavera, Christophe, 2009. "What are the long-term drivers of food prices? Investigating improvements in the accuracy of prediction intervals for the forecast of food prices," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49436, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49436
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.49436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/49436/files/Paper%20612%20938.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.49436?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Tongeren, Frank & van Meijl, Hans & Surry, Yves, 2001. "Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 149-172, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hilel Hamadache & Sophie S. Drogue, 2014. "Staple food market regulation in Algeria, what is the alternative policy? A CGE analysis for wheat," Post-Print hal-02795719, HAL.
    2. CARPENTIER, Alain & GOHIN, Alexandre & SCKOKAI, Paolo & THOMAS, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 96(1), March.
    3. James D. A. Millington & Hang Xiong & Steve Peterson & Jeremy Woods, 2017. "Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Muhammad Ali & Anisul Islam, 2014. "Agribusiness Potentials for Bangladesh — an Analysis," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 233-247.
    5. Jose‐Maria Garcia‐Alvarez‐Coque & Victor Martinez‐Gomez & Miquel Villanueva, 2010. "Seasonal protection of F&V imports in the EU: impacts of the entry price system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 205-218, March.
    6. Gracia, Azucena & de Magistris, Tiziana & Casado, Jose Maria, 2008. "The Effect Of The New Single Farm Payment In Irrigated Agriculture: The Case Of Spain," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6590, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Kristina Toming, 2006. "The Price Impact Of Adopting The Common Agricultural Policy In Estonia: Estimated Versus Actual Effects," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 45, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    8. Ragona, Maddalena & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2008. "Measuring the Impacts of Food Safety Regulations: A Methodological Review," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43864, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Gonzalez-Martinez, Ana Rosa & Jongeneel, Roel & Kros, Hans & Lesschen, Jan Peter & de Vries, Marion & Reijs, Joan & Verhoog, David, 2021. "Aligning agricultural production and environmental regulation: An integrated assessment of the Netherlands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Kym Anderson, 2003. "Measuring Effects of Trade Policy Distortions: How Far Have We Come?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 413-440, April.
    11. Gonzalez-Martinez, Ana & Jongeneel, Roel & Salamon, Petra, 2021. "Lighting on the Road to Explore Future Directions for Agricultural Modelling in the EU – some Considerations on what Needs to be Done," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 12(03), September.
    12. Catherine C. Benjamin & Chantal Guéguen & Magalie Houée Bigot, 2003. "World cereals markets under alternative common agricultural policy reforms [Les marchés mondiaux des céréales sous les propositions de la réforme de la politique agricole commune]," Post-Print hal-02831935, HAL.
    13. Psaltopoulos, Demetris & Balamou, Eudokia & Skuras, Dimitris & Ratinger, Tomas & Sieber, Stefan, 2011. "Modelling the impacts of CAP Pillar 1 and 2 measures on local economies in Europe: Testing a case study-based CGE-model approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-69, January.
    14. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2008. "Making the world market price endogenous within the AGMEMOD modelling framework: an econometric solution," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeju, 2005. "Modeling tariff rate quotas in the South African livestock industry," Master's Degree Theses 28064, University of the Free State, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    16. Esposti, Roberto & Lobianco, Antonello, 2005. "Modelling the Impact of 2003 CAP Reform on Crop Production: The case of Durum Wheat in Italy," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23.
    17. Dorin, Bruno & Joly, Pierre-Benoît, 2020. "Modelling world agriculture as a learning machine? From mainstream models to Agribiom 1.0," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    18. Kocjančič, Tina & Debeljak, Marko & Žgajnar, Jaka & Juvančič, Luka, 2018. "Incorporation of emergy into multiple-criteria decision analysis for sustainable and resilient structure of dairy farms in Slovenia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 71-83.
    19. Abler, David G., 2006. "Approaches to Measuring the Effects of Trade Agreements," Commissioned Papers 140762, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    20. Surabhi Mittal, 2007. "OECD Agricultural Trade Reforms Impact On India's Prces and Producer's Welfare," Working Papers id:1072, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.