IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaae13/161472.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How does food supply respond to high and volatile international food prices? An empirical evaluation of inter- and intra- seasonal global crop acreage response

Author

Listed:
  • Haile, Mekbib G.
  • Kalkuhl, Matthias
  • Braun, Joachim von

Abstract

Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. The innovations of the present paper are estimates of monthly (i.e. seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for four staple crops: wheat, soybeans, corn and rice. We focus on the impact of (expected) crop prices, oil and fertilizer prices and market risks (price volatility and spikes) as main determinants for farmers’ decisions on how to allocate their land. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra-annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short-term volatility in food prices. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short-run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.15; price volatility tends to reduce acreage response as do price spikes on top of that. Comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of the essence for acreage response: the analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in spring than in winter and the response varies across months.

Suggested Citation

  • Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "How does food supply respond to high and volatile international food prices? An empirical evaluation of inter- and intra- seasonal global crop acreage response," 2013 Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161472, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaae13:161472
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.161472
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/161472/files/Mekbib%20G.%20Haile_%20Matthias%20Kalkuhl%20and%20Joachim%20von%20Braun.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.161472?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nerlove, Marc & Bessler, David A., 2001. "Expectations, information and dynamics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 155-206, Elsevier.
    2. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Alfons Oude Lansink, 1999. "Area Allocation Under Price Uncertainty on Dutch Arable Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 93-105, January.
    4. Bruce L. Gardner, 1976. "Futures Prices in Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(1), pages 81-84.
    5. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    6. Moschini, Giancarlo & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Uncertainty, risk aversion, and risk management for agricultural producers," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 88-153, Elsevier.
    7. Govinda R. Timilsina & John C. Beghin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Simon Mevel, 2012. "The impacts of biofuels targets on land‐use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 315-332, May.
    8. Alain Carpentier & Elodie Letort, 2009. "Modeling acreage decisions within the multinomial Logit framework," Working Papers SMART 09-17, INRAE UMR SMART.
    9. Guyomard, Herve & Baudry, Marc & Carpentier, Alain, 1996. "Estimating Crop Supply Response in the Presence of Farm Programmes: Application to the CAP," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 23(4), pages 401-420.
    10. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2009. "World Supply and Demand of Food Commodity Calories," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1235-1242.
    11. Marc Nerlove, 1956. "Estimates of the Elasticities of Supply of Selected Agricultural Commodities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 496-509.
    12. Carlos Arnade & David Kelch, 2007. "Estimation of Area Elasticities from a Standard Profit Function," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 727-737.
    13. Robert G. Chambers & Richard E. Just, 1989. "Estimating Multioutput Technologies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 980-995.
    14. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Liang, Yan & Miller, J. Corey & Harri, Ardian & Coble, Keith H., 2011. "Crop Supply Response under Risk: Impacts of Emerging Issues on Southeastern U.S. Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 181-194, May.
    16. William Lin & Robert Dismukes, 2007. "Supply Response under Risk: Implications for Counter-Cyclical Payments' Production Impact," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 64-86.
    17. Coyle, Barry T., 1993. "On Modeling Systems Of Crop Acreage Demands," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, July.
    18. Joachim Braun & Getaw Tadesse, 2012. "Food Security, Commodity Price Volatility, and the Poor," International Economic Association Series, in: Masahiko Aoki & Timur Kuran & Gérard Roland (ed.), Institutions and Comparative Economic Development, chapter 15, pages 298-312, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Jean-Paul Chavas & Matthew T. Holt, 1990. "Acreage Decisions Under Risk: The Case of Corn and Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 529-538.
    20. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    21. Barry T. Coyle, 1999. "Risk Aversion and Yield Uncertainty in Duality Models of Production: A Mean-Variance Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 553-567.
    22. Abbott, Philip C. & Hurt, Christopher & Tyner, Wallace E., 2011. "What’s Driving Food Prices in 2011?," Issue Reports 112927, Farm Foundation.
    23. Alfons Weersink & Juan H. Cabas & Edward Olale, 2010. "Acreage Response to Weather, Yield, and Price," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(1), pages 57-72, March.
    24. Catherine Hausman, 2012. "Biofuels and Land Use Change: Sugarcane and Soybean Acreage Response in Brazil," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 163-187, February.
    25. Barry T. Coyle, 1992. "Risk Aversion and Price Risk in Duality Models of Production: A Linear Mean-Variance Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(4), pages 849-859.
    26. Hadley, Craig & Stevenson, Edward Geoffrey Jedediah & Tadesse, Yemesrach & Belachew, Tefera, 2012. "Rapidly rising food prices and the experience of food insecurity in urban Ethiopia: Impacts on health and well-being," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(12), pages 2412-2419.
    27. Coyle, Barry T. & Wei, Ran & Rude, James, 2008. "Dynamic Econometric Models of Manitoba Crop Production and Hypothetical Production Impacts for CAIS," Working Papers 46630, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    28. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Holt, Matthew T, 1996. "Economic Behavior under Uncertainty: A Joint Analysis of Risk Preferences and Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 329-335, May.
    29. Shideed, Kamil H. & White, Fred C., 1989. "Alternative Forms Of Price Expectations In Supply Analysis For U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-12, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    3. Mekbib G. Haile & Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim Braun, 2014. "Inter- and intra-seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 693-710, November.
    4. Haile, M.G. & Kalkuhl, M., 2014. "Volatility in the international food markets: implications for global agricultural supply and for market and price policy," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 49, March.
    5. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    6. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Agricultural supply response to international food prices and price volatility: a crosscountry panel analysis," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149630, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. CARPENTIER, Alain & GOHIN, Alexandre & SCKOKAI, Paolo & THOMAS, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 96(1), March.
    8. Magrini, Emiliano & Morales-Opazo, Cristian & Balie, Jean, 2014. "Supply response along the value chain in selected SSA countries: the case of grains," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197193, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    9. Robert G. Chambers & Margarita Genius & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2021. "Invariant Risk Preferences and Supply Response under Price Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1802-1819, October.
    10. Catherine Hausman, 2012. "Biofuels and Land Use Change: Sugarcane and Soybean Acreage Response in Brazil," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 163-187, February.
    11. Mekbib G. Haile & Jan Brockhaus & Matthias Kalkuhl, 2016. "Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, December.
    12. Mekbib G. Haile & Tesfamicheal Wossen & Kindie Tesfaye & Joachim von Braun, 2017. "Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 55-75, June.
    13. Magrini, Emiliano & Balié, Jean & Morales Opazo, Cristian, 2016. "Price signals and supply responses for staple food crops in SSA countries," DARE Discussion Papers 1601, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    14. repec:ajn:agdeve:2017:p:16-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo, 2013. "The impact of decoupled payments on farm choices: Conceptual and methodological challenges," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-38.
    16. Hyunseok Kim & GianCarlo Moschini, 2018. "The Dynamics of Supply: U.S. Corn and Soybeans in the Biofuel Era," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(4), pages 593-613.
    17. Sckokai, Paolo & Moro, Daniele, 2002. "Modelling The Cap Arable Crop Regime Under Uncertainty," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19860, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Boere, Esther & Peerlings, Jack H.M. & Reinhard, Stijn & Kuhlman, Tom & Heijman, Wim J.M., 2012. "Effects of volatile output prices on agricultural land-use change," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122472, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Donato, Romano & Carraro, Alessandro, 2015. "Modelling Acreage, Production and Yield Supply Response to Domestic Price Volatility," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207278, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    20. Fezzi, Carlo & Bateman, Ian J., 2009. "Structural Agricultural Land Use Modelling," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51423, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Di Gioia, Leonardo & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2021. "Price responsiveness of supply and acreage in the EU vegetable oil markets: Policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaae13:161472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaaeaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.