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Global Temperature Trends

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  • Trevor Breusch
  • Farshid Vahid

Abstract

Are global temperatures on a warming trend? It is difficult to be certain about trends when there is so much variation in the data and very high correlation from year to year. We investigate the question using statistical time series methods. Our analysis shows that the upward movement over the last 130-160 years is persistent and not explained by the high correlation, so it is best described as a trend. The warming trend becomes steeper after the mid-1970s, but there is no significant evidence for a break in trend in the late 1990s. Viewed from the perspective of 30 or 50 years ago, the temperatures recorded in most of the last decade lie above the confidence band of forecasts produced by a model that does not allow for a warming trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Trevor Breusch & Farshid Vahid, 2008. "Global Temperature Trends," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-495, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2008-495
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp495.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    2. C. W. J. Granger, 1988. "Models That Generate Trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 329-343, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Holt, Matthew T. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2020. "Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 198-215.
    2. Chen, Li & Gao, Jiti & Vahid, Farshid, 2022. "Global temperatures and greenhouse gases: A common features approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 240-254.
    3. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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