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Fiscal Asymmetries and the Survival of the Euro Zone

In: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes

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  • Paul R. Masson

Abstract

A model of a dependent central bank that internalizes the government’s budget constraint is used to examine the optimal composition of the euro zone. The model embodies the desire to stimulate output and to provide monetary financing to governments. Unable to pre-commit to first-best policies, the central bank produces excess inflation — a tendency partially reduced in a monetary union. On the basis of this framework, calibrated to euro zone data, the current membership is shown not to be optimal: other members would benefit from the expulsion of several countries, notably Greece, Italy, and France. A narrow monetary union centered around Germany might be able to guarantee central bank independence, but simulation results suggest that such a narrow monetary union would not be in Germany’s interest relative to a return to the deutsche mark.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul R. Masson, 2019. "Fiscal Asymmetries and the Survival of the Euro Zone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 8, pages 263-295, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811201721_0008
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    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Debrun & Paul R. Masson, 2013. "Modelling Monetary Union in Southern Africa: Welfare Evaluation for the CMA and SADC," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(2), pages 275-291, June.
    2. Massimo Amato & Lucio Gobbi, 2020. "Sentieri di sviluppo e aree monetarie: percorsi alternativi e vincoli strutturali. Un'introduzione (Development paths and currency areas: alternative options and structural constraints)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(289), pages 3-10.
    3. Paul R. Masson, 2020. "Lezioni dall'eurozona per l'Africa (Lessons for Africa from the Eurozone)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(289), pages 11-32.
    4. Dobronravova, Elizaveta (Добронравова, Елизавета), 2017. "Modeling the Processes of Economic and Monetary Integration [Моделирование Процессов Экономической И Валютной Интеграции]," Working Papers 031710, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rates; Modelling; Monetary Unions; Inflation Targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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