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Meeting the Mandate for Biofuels: Implications for Land Use, Food, and Fuel Prices

In: The Intended and Unintended Effects of US Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies

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  • Xiaoguang Chen
  • Haixiao Huang
  • Madhu Khanna
  • Hayri Önal

Abstract

Biofuel production is being promoted through various policies such as mandates and tax credits. This paper uses a dynamic, spatial, multi-market equilibrium model, Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (BEPAM), to estimate the effects of these policies on cropland allocation, food and fuel prices, and the mix of biofuels from corn and cellulosic feedstocks over the 2007-2022 period. We find that the biofuel mandate will increase corn price by 24%, reduce the price of gasoline by 8% in 2022, and increase social welfare by $122 B (0.7%) relative to Business As Usual scenario. The provision of volumetric tax credits that accompany the mandate significantly changes the mix of biofuels produced in favor of cellulosic biofuels and reduces the share of corn ethanol in the cumulative volume of biofuels produced from 50% to 10%. The tax credits reduce the adverse impact of the mandate alone on crop prices and decrease the price of biofuels. However, they impose a welfare cost of $79 B compared to the mandate alone. These results are found to be sensitive to the rate of growth of crop productivity, the costs of production of bioenergy crops, and the availability of marginal land for producing bioenergy crops.
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  • Xiaoguang Chen & Haixiao Huang & Madhu Khanna & Hayri Önal, 2011. "Meeting the Mandate for Biofuels: Implications for Land Use, Food, and Fuel Prices," NBER Chapters, in: The Intended and Unintended Effects of US Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies, pages 223-267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Gorter Harry & Just David R, 2008. "The Economics of the U.S. Ethanol Import Tariff with a Blend Mandate and Tax Credit," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2010. "Using Biofuel Tax Credits to Achieve Energy and Environmental Policy Goals," Reports 21444, Congressional Budget Office.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ladislav Kristoufek & Karel Janda & David Zilberman, 2012. "Mutual Responsiveness of Biofuels, Fuels and Food Prices," CAMA Working Papers 2012-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Nuñez, Hector M., 2016. "Biofuel Potential in Mexico: Land Use, Economic and Environmental Effects," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236067, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Huang, Yongxi & Chen, Yihsu, 2014. "Analysis of an imperfectly competitive cellulosic biofuel supply chain," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Blessing M. Chiripanhura & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, 2013. "The Impacts of the Food, fuel and Financial Crises on Households in Nigeria: a Retrospective Approach for Research Enquiry," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-058, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Stephen P. Holland & Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Nathan C. Parker, 2013. "Unintended Consequences of Transportation Carbon Policies: Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 19636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. JunJie Wu & Christian Langpap, 2015. "The Price and Welfare Effects of Biofuel Mandates and Subsidies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(1), pages 35-57, September.
    7. Felippe Cauê Serigati & Paulo Furquim De Azevedo, 2016. "How To Indirectly Measure Market Transaction Costs," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 192, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Jerome Dumortier & Amani Elobeid, 2020. "Assessment of Carbon Tax Policies: Implications on U.S. Agricultural Production and Farm Income," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 20-wp606, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    9. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., 2012. "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(3), pages 1-28, December.
    10. Ladislav Kristoufek & Karel Janda & David Zilberman, 2013. "Non-linear Price Transmission between Biofuels, Fuels and Food Commodities," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp481, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    11. Chen, Xiaoguang & Khanna, Madhu, 2014. "Indirect Land Use Effects of Corn Ethanol in the U.S: Implications for the Conservation Reserve Program," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170284, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Huang, Haixiao & Khanna, Madhu & Önal, Hayri & Chen, Xiaoguang, 2013. "Stacking low carbon policies on the renewable fuels standard: Economic and greenhouse gas implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 5-15.
    13. Madhu Khanna & David Zilberman, 2012. "Modeling The Land-Use And Greenhouse-Gas Implications Of Biofuels," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-15.
    14. Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel & Chiripanhura, Blessing, 2013. "The impacts of the food, fuel and financial crises on households in Nigeria. A retrospective approach for research enquiry," MPRA Paper 47348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Wang, Xin & Lim, Michael K. & Ouyang, Yanfeng, 2015. "Infrastructure deployment under uncertainties and competition: The biofuel industry case," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Karel Janda & Eva Michalikova & Luiz Célio Souza Rocha & Paulo Rotella Junior & Barbora Schererova & David Zilberman, 2022. "Review of the Impact of Biofuels on U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, December.
    17. Nunez, H., 2018. "Building a Bioethanol Market in Mexico," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275921, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Parker, Nathan & Williams, Robert & Dominguez-Faus, Rosa & Scheitrum, Daniel, 2017. "Renewable natural gas in California: An assessment of the technical and economic potential," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 235-245.
    19. Okwo, Adaora & Thomas, Valerie M., 2014. "Biomass feedstock contracts: Role of land quality and yield variability in near term feasibility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-80.
    20. Affuso, Ermanno & Hite, Diane, 2013. "A model for sustainable land use in biofuel production: An application to the state of Alabama," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 29-39.
    21. Wang, Weiwei & Khanna, Madhu & Dwivedi, Puneet, 2013. "Optimal Mix of Feedstock for Biofuels: Implications for Land Use and GHG Emissions," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150736, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    22. Gal Hochman & Scott Kaplan & Deepak Rajagopal & David Zilberman, 2012. "Biofuel and Food-Commodity Prices," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-10, September.
    23. Cui, Jingbo & Martin, Jeremy I., 2017. "Impacts of US biodiesel mandates on world vegetable oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 148-160.

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    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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