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Ökonomische Effekte eines Brexit auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Jasmin Katrin Gröschl
  • Inga Heiland
  • Martin Braml
  • Marina Steininger

Abstract

Am 29. März 2017 notifizierte die britische Regierung ihren Austrittswillen nach Art. 50 des EU-Vertrages bei der EU. Der Brexit ist somit offiziell eingeleitet. Am 29. April haben die Staats- und Regierungschefs beim Europäischen Rat nach Art. 50 EUV die Leitlinien für die Verhandlungen zwischen der EU und dem VK beschlossen. In der nächsten Zeit werden die Verhandlungen zunächst zu wichtigen Fragen des Austritts beginnen. Wenn der Europäische Rat hierbei ausreichende Fortschritte feststellt, können Gespräche über die zukünftigen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen zwischen der EU27 und dem Vereinigten Königreich (VK) beginnen. Doch wie werden sich beide Verhandlungspartner verhalten? Ist ein harter Brexit und eine völlige Umorientierung seitens des Vereinigten Königreichs wirtschaftlich besser oder sollte man versuchen die bestehenden wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen möglichst zu erhalten und dem VK weitgehend entgegenkommen?

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Inga Heiland & Martin Braml & Marina Steininger, 2017. "Ökonomische Effekte eines Brexit auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 85, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:85
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Clemens Fuest & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Daniel Stöhlker, 2017. "Economic Effects of Brexit on the European Economy," EconPol Policy Reports 4, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Keita, Sekou & Stepanok, Ignat & Vallizadeh, Ehsan, 2020. "Beschäftigungsrelevanz des Handels mit dem Vereinigten Königreich: Exportabhängige Arbeitsplätze sind über Branchen und Regionen ungleich verteilt," IAB-Kurzbericht 202001, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819, February.
    4. Behm, Philipp, 2017. "Fiskalische Konsequenzen des Brexit," DSi kompakt 29, DSi - Deutsches Steuerzahlerinstitut des Bundes der Steuerzahler e.V., Berlin.
    5. Schmidt, Torsten & Blagov, Boris & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Jäger, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2018. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Leichte Dämpfer für die Weltwirtschaft," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 69(1), pages 5-39.
    6. Holger Görg & Saskia Mösle & Thieß Petersen & Hartmut Egger & Kemal Kilic & Dalia Marin & Lisandra Flach & Rahel Aichele & Martin Braml & Ralph Wiechers & Thomas Steinwachs & Morris Hosseini & Michael, 2020. "Neustart der Industrie unter dem Einfluss von Covid-19: Wie bereit ist die globale Lieferkette?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(05), pages 03-34, May.
    7. Baumgart, Sabine & Danielzyk, Rainer & Dörry, Sabine & Hülz, Martina & Matthes, Jürgen & Orth, Martin & Schmidt-Seiwert, Volker & Schmitt, Peter & Wood, Gerald, 2021. "Brexit: Neue Herausforderungen für ein neues Europa," Positionspapier aus der ARL 120, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft.
    8. Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2021. "International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    9. Gabriel Felbermayr & Robert Lehmann & Marina Steininger, 2018. "Brexit and its Economic Consequences for the German State of Hesse," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 93, September.
    10. Martin Braml & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2019. "Quo vadis, Brexitannia?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(02), pages 32-39, January.
    11. Gabriel Felbermayr, 2019. "Brexit: Eine “Hard-but-Smart”–Strategie und ihre Folgen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(04), pages 27-33, February.
    12. Antoine Berthou & Sophie Haincourt & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve & Ángel Estrada & Moritz A. Roth & Alexander Kadow, 2019. "Assessing the macroeconomic impact of Brexit through trade and migration channels," Occasional Papers 1911, Banco de España.
    13. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Drygalla, Andrej & Gebauer, Stefan & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Lindner, Axel & Michelsen, Claus & Rieth, Malte & Schlaak, Thore, 2019. "Kurzfristige ökonomische Effekte eines "Brexit" auf die deutsche Wirtschaft: Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie," IWH Online 3/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other

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