IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/ces/ifobei/36.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene

Author

Listed:
  • Gerit Vogt

Abstract

Die vorliegende Arbeit wurde von Gerit Vogt während seiner Tätigkeit als wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung erstellt und im März 2009 abgeschlossen. Sie wurde im Juli 2009 an der Technischen Universität Dresden als Dissertation angenommen und mit Erfolg verteidigt. Gegenstand der Arbeit ist die Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Im Fokus der Ausführungen steht das Bruttoinlandsprodukt als zentrale Konjunktur- und Prognosevariable. Die Arbeit verfolgt im Wesentlichen zwei Ziele. Das erste Ziel ist, ausgehend von der bestehenden Fachliteratur, einen allgemeinen Überblick über die aktuellen Prognoseaktivitäten in Deutschland auf der Bundes- und der Länderebene zu geben. Ein zweites Ziel ist, die vorhandene Literatur mit zwei neuen Ansätzen zu erweitern und damit zum wissenschaftlichen Fortschritt auf diesem Gebiet beizutragen. Zum einen wird untersucht, inwieweit ausgewählte ifo-Konjunkturindikatoren Informationen enthalten, die zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Deutschlands nützlich sind. Hierbei wird ein Ansatz verwendet, der Datenrevisionen explizit berücksichtigt und damit eine realitätsnahe Beurteilung der Indikatoreigenschaften erlaubt. Zum anderen wird ein an der Dresdner Niederlassung des ifo Instituts entwickeltes Verfahren zur Prognose des sächsischen und ostdeutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts vorgestellt und auf dessen bisherige Treffgenauigkeit eingegangen.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
    2. Beate Grundig & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2006/2007," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(01), pages 3-14, 02.
    3. repec:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:1:p:87-101 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    5. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2003. "Die Konstruktion und Schätzung eines Frühindikators für die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Freien und Hansestadt Hamburg," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20305, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    6. Michael Berlemann & Marcel Thum, 2005. "Blooming landscapes in East Germany?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(04), pages 16-22, December.
    7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    8. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic Factor Models," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 3, pages 25-40, Springer.
    9. Hüfner, Felix P. & Schröder, Michael, 2001. "Unternehmens- versus Analystenbefragungen: Zum Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-04, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "Qualitative Business Surveys in Manufacturing and Industrial Production - What can be Learned from Industry Branch Results?," ifo Working Paper Series 31, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
    12. Wolfgang Gerstenberger, 2001. "Perspektiven für Konjunktur und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(06), pages 15-24, 09.
    13. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2005: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.
    14. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    15. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    16. Moneta, Fabio, 2003. "Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 294, European Central Bank.
    17. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Deutschland am Rande einer Rezession: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2008," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 14(2. Sonder), pages 1-87.
    18. Lupoletti, William M & Webb, Roy H, 1986. "Defining and Improving the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Contributions from a VAR Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 263-285, April.
    19. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 93-114, Springer.
    20. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    21. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "What is a Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 3863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-505, December.
    23. Beate Henschel & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2006/2007," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(01), pages .3-14, February.
    24. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    25. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "Handbuch der umfragebasierten Konjunkturforschung," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 15.
    26. Michael Berlemann & Beate Henschel & Gerit Vogt, 2005. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen und Ostdeutschland 2004/2005," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(01), pages 3-13, February.
    27. Birger Antholz, 2006. "Geschichte der quantitativen Konjunkturprognose-Evaluation in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(2), pages 12-33.
    28. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
    29. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    30. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
    31. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2007. "Aufschwung legt Pause ein - Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2007," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 13(2. Sonder), pages 1-69.
    32. Kappler, Marcus, 2006. "Wie genau sind die Konjunkturprognosen der Institute für Deutschland?," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-004, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    33. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
    34. Reinhard Hild, 2004. "Produktion, Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 19-27, April.
    35. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    36. Schmidt, Sandra & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "Prognosevergleich der ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen und der ifo-Geschäftserwartungen: Eine Aktualisierung," ZEW Wachstums- und Konjunkturanalysen, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 5-7.
    37. Ziegler, Christina & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    38. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson (ed.), 2003. "Understanding Economic Forecasts," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582422, April.
    39. Michael Berlemann & Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," ifo Working Paper Series 52, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    40. Beate Grundig & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2008. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2007/2008," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(01), pages 3-12, 02.
    41. Beate Henschel & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2008. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2007/2008," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(01), pages .3-12, February.
    42. Joachim Ragnitz, 2008. "Leiharbeit in Deutschland : statistischer Befund und Schlussfolgerungen für die empirische Wirtschaftsforschung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(05), pages 23-31, October.
    43. Christian Dreger & Christian Schumacher, 2005. "Out-of-sample Performance of Leading Indicators for the German Business Cycle: Single vs. Combined Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(1), pages 71-87.
    44. Gardner, Everette Jr., 2006. "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-666.
    45. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2010. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(2), pages 192-220, June.
    46. Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
    47. Beate Grundig & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2006. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2005/2006," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(01), pages 3-14, 02.
    48. Joachim Ragnitz & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2008/2009 : Abschwung und Rezession," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(01), pages 3-11, February.
    49. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    50. Cukierman, Alex, 2004. "Comment on: "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1003-1006, July.
    51. Fritsche Ulrich & Stephan Sabine, 2002. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles. An Assessment of Properties / Frühindikatoren der deutschen Konjunktur. Eine Beurteilung ihrer Eigenschaften," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(3), pages 289-315, June.
    52. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 83(Q 4), pages 4-20.
    53. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    55. Wolf-Dietmar Speich, 2006. "Revision 2005 in den regionalen Gesamtrechnungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(02), pages .33-41, April.
    56. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    57. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Vierteljährliche volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen für Sachsen mit Hilfe temporaler Disaggregation," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 24-36, 08.
    58. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2006: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(02), pages 23-28, January.
    59. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    60. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche, 2006. "Growth and inflation forecasts for Germany a panel-based assessment of accuracy and efficiency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 777-798, September.
    61. Gerit Vogt, 2004. "Prognose von Umsatz und Bruttowertschöpfung des verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Sachsen für das Jahr 2004 (Prognose der Bruttowertschöpfung des sächsischen verarbeitenden Gewerbes 2004)," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(04), pages 23-30, August.
    62. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    63. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
    64. Bathcelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 3-10.
    65. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Ludwig, Udo, 2002. "Vierteljährliche Entstehungsrechnung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für Ostdeutschland: Sektorale Bruttowertschöpfung," IWH Discussion Papers 164/2002, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    66. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    67. Schorfheide, Frank, 2000. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 441-450, June.
    68. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    69. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Stefan Kooths & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Konjunkturprognosen für Bundesländer setzen Verbesserung der Datensituation voraus," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(24), pages 318-325.
    70. Joachim Ragnitz, 2008. "Leiharbeit in Deutschland : statistischer Befund und Schlussfolgerungen für die empirische Wirtschaftsforschung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(05), pages .23-31, October.
    71. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    72. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    73. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2007. "Aufschwung legt Pause ein," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(20), pages 03-58, October.
    74. Michael Berlemann & Beate Henschel & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2005. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen und Ostdeutschland 2005/2006," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(04), pages 3-10, August.
    75. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, April.
    76. Beate Henschel & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2006. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2005/2006," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(01), pages .3-14, February.
    77. Wolf-Dietmar Speich, 2006. "Revision 2005 in den regionalen Gesamtrechnungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(02), pages 33-41, 04.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    2. Lehmann Robert & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2015. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 226-254, May.
    3. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Arent & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Beate Schirwitz & Johannes Steinbrecher & Gerit Vogt & Björn Ziegenbalg, 2010. "Methodenexpertise zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der internationalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise auf die Wirtschaft im Land Brandenburg : Gutachten im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Wirtschaft des Landes," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53, May.
    4. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages 28-32, 02.
    5. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vogt Gerit, 2007. "Analyse der Prognoseeigenschaften von ifo-Konjunkturindikatoren unter Echtzeitbedingungen / The Forecasting Performance of ifo-indicators Under Real-time Conditions," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(1), pages 87-101, February.
    2. repec:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:1:p:87-101 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
    5. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    6. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
    7. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages 28-32, 02.
    8. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    9. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Croushore, D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 483-489, December.
    11. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, September.
    12. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    13. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
    14. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    15. Heinisch Katja & Scheufele Rolf, 2019. "Should Forecasters Use Real-Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 170-200, December.
    16. Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
    17. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
    18. Gerit Vogt, 2008. "Ein Beschäftigungsbarometer für die sächsische Wirtschaft," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(01), pages .41-43, February.
    19. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
    20. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    24. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, September.
    25. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Arent & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Beate Schirwitz & Johannes Steinbrecher & Gerit Vogt & Björn Ziegenbalg, 2010. "Methodenexpertise zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der internationalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise auf die Wirtschaft im Land Brandenburg : Gutachten im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Wirtschaft des Landes," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.