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Alternation Bias and the Parameterization of Cumulative Prospect Theory

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  • Kaivanto, Kim

Abstract

Two recently published studies argue that conventional parameterizations of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) fail to resolve the St. Petersburg Paradox. Yet as a descriptive theory CPT is not intended to account for the local representativeness effect, which is known to induce 'alternation bias' on binary iid sequences such as those generated by coin tossing in St. Petersburg gambles. Once alternation bias is controlled for, conventional parameterizations of CPT yield finite certainty equivalents for the St. Petersburg gamble, negating the suggested need for reparameterization. Moreover, the associated willingness to pay estimates fall within the generally accepted empirical range.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaivanto, Kim, 2008. "Alternation Bias and the Parameterization of Cumulative Prospect Theory," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 91-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:52592
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaivanto, Kim & Kroll, Eike B., 2012. "Negative recency, randomization device choice, and reduction of compound lotteries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 263-267.
    2. Tibor Neugebauer, 2010. "Moral Impossibility in the Petersburg Paradox : A Literature Survey and Experimental Evidence," LSF Research Working Paper Series 10-14, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    3. José Antonio Robles-Zurita, 2015. "Alternation Bias and Sums of Identically Distributed Monetary Lotteries," Working Papers 15.08, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    4. Kim Kaivanto & Eike Kroll, 2014. "Alternation bias and reduction in St. Petersburg gambles," Working Papers 65600286, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    5. Robles-Zurita, José, 2018. "Alternation bias and sums of identically distributed monetary lotteries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-85.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    St. Petersburg Paradox; Cumulative Prospect Theory; Local Representativeness Effect; Alternation Bias; Law of Small Numbers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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