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Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation

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  • Kibritçioğlu, Aykut

Abstract

Turkey has experienced high and persistent inflation for more than twenty years. This chapter attempts firstly to survey the extremely broad literature on theories of inflation, in order to be able to classify, understand and discuss the dynamics of inflation more carefully. In this chapter, it is mainly argued that inflation may be interpreted as a net result of sophisticated and continuous interactions of demand-side (or monetary) shocks, supply-side (or real) shocks, price-adjustment (or inertial) factors and political processes (or institutional factors). The second aim of the chapter is to compare the existing empirical studies on Turkish inflation, by considering their sample period, data frequency, empirical methods, modeled macroeconomic variables and main results. Most of the studies reviewed here seem to have focused primarily on demand-side determinants (e. g., monetary growth and budget deficits), and partially on some supply-side factors (e. g., nominal exchange rates and oil prices). On the other hand, the components, degree and effects of inflation inertia need to be investigated in more detail. In the future, the modeling attempts of the inflationary dynamics in Turkey would profit from the so-called “new political macroeconomics” because the role of the political process and institutions is not a weak explanatory factor of Turkish inflation that is easily ignored.

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  • Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2002. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 43-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:110204
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    2. Us, Vuslat, 2004. "Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1003-1013, December.
    3. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: he Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 19589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Oya Celasun & R. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 493-509, November.
    5. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Mathur, Ike, 2007. "Pricing home mortgages and bank collateral: A rational expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1217-1244, April.
    6. Imran Khan & Darshita Fulara Gunwant, 2023. "Is the remittance inflow to the Turkish economy sustainable? A glimpse of the future through the lens of the past," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 34-51, June.
    7. Hasan Engin Duran & Burak Dindaroğlu, 2021. "Regional inflation persistence in Turkey," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 460-491, March.
    8. Ümit Özlale & Kivilcim Metin Ozcan, 2005. "Does Time Inconsistency Problem Apply For Turkish Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2005/2, Turkish Economic Association.
    9. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: he Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 19589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2002. "Velocity Effect On Inflationary Growth of Turkey: Evidence From Co-integration Analysis and Granger's Causality Test," MPRA Paper 259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. Ebrahim, M. Shahid, 2009. "Can an Islamic model of housing finance cooperative elevate the economic status of the underprivileged?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 864-883, December.
    13. Korap, Levent & Saatçioğlu, Cem, 2009. "New time series evidence for the causality relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19246, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation theories; Turkey; causes of inflation; political economy of inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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