IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v40y2020i4p818-841.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic

Author

Listed:
  • Tzu Yang Loh
  • Mario P. Brito
  • Neil Bose
  • Jingjing Xu
  • Kiril Tenekedjiev

Abstract

With the maturing of autonomous technology and better accessibility, there has been a growing interest in the use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). The deployment of AUVs for under‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extreme operating environment. To control the risk of loss, existing risk analyses approaches tend to focus more on the AUV's technical aspects and neglect the role of soft factors, such as organizational and human influences. In addition, the dynamic and complex interrelationships of risk variables are also often overlooked due to uncertainties and challenges in quantification. To overcome these shortfalls, a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics risk analysis (FuSDRA) is proposed. In the FuSDRA framework, system dynamics models the interrelationships between risk variables from different dimensions and considers the time‐dependent nature of risk while fuzzy logic accounts for uncertainties. To demonstrate its application, an example based on an actual Antarctic AUV program is presented. Focusing on funding and experience of the AUV team, simulation of the FuSDRA risk model shows a declining risk of loss from 0.293 in the early years of the Antarctic AUV program, reaching a minimum of 0.206 before increasing again in later years. Risk control policy recommendations were then derived from the analysis. The example demonstrated how FuSDRA can be applied to inform funding and risk management strategies, or broader application both within the AUV domain and on other complex technological systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Tzu Yang Loh & Mario P. Brito & Neil Bose & Jingjing Xu & Kiril Tenekedjiev, 2020. "Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 818-841, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:4:p:818-841
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13429
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13429
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.13429?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Madison Sween & Andrea Ceschi & Francesco Tommasi & Riccardo Sartori & Joshua Weller, 2017. "Who is a Distracted Driver? Associations between Mobile Phone Use while Driving, Domain‐Specific Risk Taking, and Personality," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2119-2131, November.
    2. Emmanuel Garbolino & Jean‐Pierre Chery & Franck Guarnieri, 2016. "A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 16-29, January.
    3. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
    4. Stephen D. Unwin, 1986. "A Fuzzy Set Theoretic Foundation for Vagueness in Uncertainty Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 27-34, March.
    5. Ann Bostrom & Cynthia J. Atman & Baruch Fischhoff & M. Granger Morgan, 1994. "Evaluating Risk Communications: Completing and Correcting Mental Models of Hazardous Processes, Part II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(5), pages 789-798, October.
    6. Cynthia J. Atman & Ann Bostrom & Baruch Fischhoff & M. Granger Morgan, 1994. "Designing Risk Communications: Completing and Correcting Mental Models of Hazardous Processes, Part I," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(5), pages 779-788, October.
    7. Brito, Mario & Griffiths, Gwyn, 2016. "A Bayesian approach for predicting risk of autonomous underwater vehicle loss during their missions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 55-67.
    8. Mario Paulo Brito & Gwyn Griffiths & Peter Challenor, 2010. "Risk Analysis for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in Extreme Environments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1771-1788, December.
    9. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2009. "On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(12), pages 1647-1654, December.
    10. Kazuya Nakayachi & Branden B. Johnson & Kazuki Koketsu, 2018. "Effects of Acknowledging Uncertainty about Earthquake Risk Estimates on San Francisco Bay Area Residents’ Beliefs, Attitudes, and Intentions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 666-679, April.
    11. Achint Rastogi & Hossam A. Gabbar, 2013. "Fuzzy‐Logic‐Based Safety Verification Framework for Nuclear Power Plants," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1128-1145, June.
    12. Frank W. Guldenmund, 2010. "(Mis)understanding Safety Culture and Its Relationship to Safety Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1466-1480, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rongshan Nie & Zhen Wang, 2024. "Research on the Dynamic Model of Emergency Rescue Resource-Allocation Systems for Mine-Fire Accidents, Taking Liquid CO 2 Transportation as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Chen, Xi & Bose, Neil & Brito, Mario & Khan, Faisal & Thanyamanta, Bo & Zou, Ting, 2021. "A Review of Risk Analysis Research for the Operations of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Johansen, Thomas & Blindheim, Simon & Torben, Tobias Rye & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Johansen, Tor Arne & Sørensen, Asgeir J., 2023. "Development and testing of a risk-based control system for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    4. Kusi-Sarpong, Simonov & Orji, Ifeyinwa Juliet & Gupta, Himanshu & Kunc, Martin, 2021. "Risks associated with the implementation of big data analytics in sustainable supply chains," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tzu Yang Loh & Mario P. Brito & Neil Bose & Jingjing Xu & Kiril Tenekedjiev, 2020. "Human Error in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployment: A System Dynamics Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1258-1278, June.
    2. Tzu Yang Loh & Mario P. Brito & Neil Bose & Jingjing Xu & Kiril Tenekedjiev, 2019. "A Fuzzy‐Based Risk Assessment Framework for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Under‐Ice Missions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(12), pages 2744-2765, December.
    3. Branden B. Johnson, 2018. "Residential Location and Psychological Distance in Americans’ Risk Views and Behavioral Intentions Regarding Zika Virus," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2561-2579, December.
    4. Chen, Xi & Bose, Neil & Brito, Mario & Khan, Faisal & Thanyamanta, Bo & Zou, Ting, 2021. "A Review of Risk Analysis Research for the Operations of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Angela Bearth & Marie‐Eve Cousin & Michael Siegrist, 2016. "“The Dose Makes the Poison”: Informing Consumers About the Scientific Risk Assessment of Food Additives," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 130-144, January.
    6. Branden B. Johnson, 1999. "Ethical Issues in Risk Communication: Continuing the Discussion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 335-348, June.
    7. Mario P. Brito & Ian G. J. Dawson, 2020. "Predicting the Validity of Expert Judgments in Assessing the Impact of Risk Mitigation Through Failure Prevention and Correction," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1928-1943, October.
    8. Matthew D. Wood & Ann Bostrom & Todd Bridges & Igor Linkov, 2012. "Cognitive Mapping Tools: Review and Risk Management Needs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(8), pages 1333-1348, August.
    9. Michael Greenberg & Anthony Cox & Vicki Bier & Jim Lambert & Karen Lowrie & Warner North & Michael Siegrist & Felicia Wu, 2020. "Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2113-2127, November.
    10. Yacov Y Haimes, 2012. "Strategic Preparedness for Recovery from Catastrophic Risks to Communities and Infrastructure Systems of Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1834-1845, November.
    11. Qianxiang Zhu & Yuanqing Qin & Chunjie Zhou & Weiwei Gao, 2018. "Extended multilevel flow model-based dynamic risk assessment for cybersecurity protection in industrial production systems," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 14(6), pages 15501477187, June.
    12. Jörg Niewöhner & Patrick Cox & Simon Gerrard & Nick Pidgeon, 2004. "Evaluating the Efficacy of a Mental Models Approach for Improving Occupational Chemical Risk Protection," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(2), pages 349-361, April.
    13. Michele Bristow & Liping Fang & Keith W. Hipel, 2012. "System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1935-1955, November.
    14. Christoph Werner & Tim Bedford & John Quigley, 2018. "Sequential Refined Partitioning for Probabilistic Dependence Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2683-2702, December.
    15. Klaus Wagner, 2007. "Mental Models of Flash Floods and Landslides," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 671-682, June.
    16. Tim Harries, 2012. "The Anticipated Emotional Consequences of Adaptive Behaviour—Impacts on the Take-up of Household Flood-Protection Measures," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 44(3), pages 649-668, March.
    17. Branden B. Johnson, 2004. "Varying Risk Comparison Elements: Effects on Public Reactions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 103-114, February.
    18. Catherine E. LePrevost & Margaret R. Blanchard & W. Gregory Cope, 2011. "The Pesticide Risk Beliefs Inventory: A Quantitative Instrument for the Assessment of Beliefs about Pesticide Risks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-13, June.
    19. Christoph Alexander Thieme & Ingrid Bouwer Utne, 2017. "A risk model for autonomous marine systems and operation focusing on human–autonomy collaboration," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(4), pages 446-464, August.
    20. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2011. "On the Complex Quantification of Risk: Systems‐Based Perspective on Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(8), pages 1175-1186, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:4:p:818-841. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.