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Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes

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  • Gerard J. van den Berg
  • Antoine Bozio
  • Mónica Costa Dias

Abstract

Causal effects of a policy change on hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change if there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that overcomes this by considering spells that include the moment of the policy change and by exploiting variation in the moment at which different cohorts are exposed to the policy change. We prove identification of average treatment effects on hazard rates without model structure. We estimate these effects by kernel hazard regression. We use the introduction of the NDYP program for young unemployed individuals in the UK to estimate average program participation effects on the exit rate to work as well as anticipation effects.

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  • Gerard J. van den Berg & Antoine Bozio & Mónica Costa Dias, 2020. "Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), pages 871-916, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:11:y:2020:i:3:p:871-916
    DOI: 10.3982/QE639
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    Cited by:

    1. van der Klaauw, B. & van Ours, J.C., 2010. "Carrot and Stick : How Reemployment Bonuses and Benefit Sanctions Affect Job Finding Rates," Other publications TiSEM f368f876-0bd7-499d-8211-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Muller, Paul & van der Klaauw, Bas & Heyma, Arjan, 2017. "Comparing Econometric Methods to Empirically Evaluate Job-Search Assistance," Working Papers in Economics 691, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Brewer, Mike & Cattan, Sarah & Crawford, Claire & Rabe, Birgitta, 2022. "Does more free childcare help parents work more?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Cerqua, Augusto & Urwin, Peter & Thomson, Dave & Bibby, David, 2020. "Evaluation of education and training impacts for the unemployed: Challenges of new data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Koning, Pierre & van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten, 2017. "Making disability work? The effects of financial incentives on partially disabled workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 202-215.
    6. Gerard J. van den Berg & Annette H. Bergemann & Marco Caliendo, 2009. "The Effect of Active Labor Market Programs on Not-Yet Treated Unemployed Individuals," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 606-616, 04-05.
    7. Patrick Arni & Gerard J. van den Berg & Rafael Lalive, 2022. "Treatment Versus Regime Effects of Carrots and Sticks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 111-127, January.
    8. Gürtzgen, Nicole & (né Nolte), André Diegmann & Pohlan, Laura & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2021. "Do digital information technologies help unemployed job seekers find a job? Evidence from the broadband internet expansion in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Annette Bergemann & Marco Caliendo & Gerard J. van den Berg & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2011. "The threat effect of participation in active labor market programs on job search behavior of migrants in Germany," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(7), pages 777-795, October.
    10. Garcia-Louzao, Jose, 2022. "Workers’ job mobility in response to severance pay generosity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Gerard J. van den Berg & Petyo Bonev & Enno Mammen, 2020. "Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 355-367, May.
    12. Marco Caliendo & Ricarda Schmidl, 2016. "Youth unemployment and active labor market policies in Europe," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, December.
    13. Ben Deaner & Hyejin Ku, 2024. "Causal Duration Analysis with Diff-in-Diff," Papers 2405.05220, arXiv.org.
    14. Crépon, Bruno & Ferracci, Marc & Jolivet, Grégory & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2010. "Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates," IZA Discussion Papers 5265, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Berg, Gerard J. van den & Bonev, Petyo & Mammen, Enno, 2016. "Nonparametric instrumental variable methods for dynamic treatment evaluation," Working Papers 16-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    16. Bruno Decreuse & Guillaume Wilemme, 2019. "Age Discontinuity and Nonemployment Benefit Policy Evaluation through the Lens of Job Search Theory," Working Papers halshs-02072800, HAL.
    17. Paul Muller & Bas van der Klaauw & Arjan Heyma, 2020. "Comparing econometric methods to empirically evaluate activation programs for job seekers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 526-547, August.
    18. Xu, Ke-Li, 2018. "A semi-nonparametric estimator of regression discontinuity design with discrete duration outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 258-278.
    19. Eliason, Marcus & Johansson, Per & Nilsson, Martin, 2019. "Forward-looking moral hazard in social insurance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 84-98.
    20. Rüdiger Wapler & Daniel Werner & Katja Wolf, 2018. "Active labour market policies in Germany: do regional labour markets benefit?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5561-5578, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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