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Cite unseen: Theory and evidence on the effect of open access on cites to academic articles across the quality spectrum

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  • Mark J. McCabe
  • Christopher M. Snyder

Abstract

We model open access as facilitating full‐text acquisition, which, while often increasing cites, can reduce cites from readers who refrain from citing superficially after realizing the article is not worth citing. We test the theory with data on over 200,000 science articles binned by cites in the pre‐study period. Consistent with theory, we find that opening access to an article on the journal's website has a “Matthew effect” on citations: negative for the least‐cited articles, positive for the most cited, and monotonic for quality levels in between. Estimates for broader open‐access platforms and for cites coming from insiders versus outsiders also follow patterns consistent with theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark J. McCabe & Christopher M. Snyder, 2021. "Cite unseen: Theory and evidence on the effect of open access on cites to academic articles across the quality spectrum," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 1960-1979, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:42:y:2021:i:8:p:1960-1979
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.3353
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    Cited by:

    1. Justus Haucap & Nima Moshgbar & W. Benedikt Schmal, 2021. "The impact of the German 'DEAL' on competition in the academic publishing market," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2027-2049, December.
    2. Alexander Cuntz & Frank Mueller-Langer & Alessio Muscarnera & Prince C. Oguguo & Marc Scheufen, 2024. "Access to science and innovation in the developing world," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 78, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division.
    3. Schmal, W. Benedikt, 2024. "The X Factor: Open Access, New Journals, and Incumbent Competitors," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Qianjin Zong & Zhihong Huang & Jiaru Huang, 2023. "Can open access increase LIS research’s policy impact? Using regression analysis and causal inference," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(8), pages 4825-4854, August.
    5. W. Benedikt Schmal, 2022. "From Rules to Regs: A Structural Topic Model of Collusion Research," Papers 2210.02957, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L17 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Open Source Products and Markets
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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