IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v45y2013i4p535-558.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of the Volatility of Monetary Policy Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • HAROON MUMTAZ
  • FRANCESCO ZANETTI

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of the volatility of monetary policy using a structural vector auroregression (SVAR) model enriched along two dimensions. First, it allows for time‐varying variance of monetary policy shocks via a stochastic volatility specification. Second, it allows a dynamic interaction between the level of the endogenous variables in the VAR and the time‐varying volatility. The analysis establishes that the nominal interest rate, output growth, and inflation fall in reaction to an increase in the volatility of monetary policy. The analysis also develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model enriched with stochastic volatility to monetary policy that generates similar responses and provides a theoretical underpinning of these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "The Impact of the Volatility of Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 535-558, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:4:p:535-558
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12015
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berument, Hakan & Yalcin, Yeliz & Yildirim, Julide, 2009. "The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1201-1207, November.
    2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    3. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    5. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Multivariate stochastic volatility, leverage and news impact surfaces," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(2), pages 292-309, July.
    6. Asai, M. & Caporin, M., 2009. "Block Structure Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-51, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    8. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    9. Siem Jan Koopman & Eugenie Hol Uspensky, 2002. "The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 667-689.
    10. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    11. Łukasz Kwiatkowski, 2010. "Markov Switching In-Mean Effect. Bayesian Analysis in Stochastic Volatility Framework," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 59-94, January.
    12. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 923-936, November.
    13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    14. Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-128, February.
    15. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
    16. Lemoine, M. & Mougin, C., 2010. "The Growth-Volatility Relationship: New Evidence Based on Stochastic Volatility in Mean Models," Working papers 285, Banque de France.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "The International Transmission Of Volatility Shocks: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 512-533, June.
    2. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Fasolo, Angelo Marsiglia, 2019. "Monetary policy volatility shocks in Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 348-360.
    4. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Endogenous Financial Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from the United States," MPRA Paper 101276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2020.
    5. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2020. "A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 367-379, April.
    6. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    8. Vivek Sharma & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2019. "Sovereign Spread Volatility and Banking Sector," CEIS Research Paper 454, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Mar 2019.
    9. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, frictions, or monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2013. "Changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 543-560.
    11. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 799-815, December.
    12. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 319-331, April.
    13. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Katerina Petrova, 2015. "A Bayesian Local Likelihood Method for Modelling Parameter Time Variation in DSGE Models," Working Papers 770, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-282.
    15. Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & James M. Nason, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of DSGE models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 21, pages 486-512, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    17. Liu, Zheng & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2007. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation," Kiel Working Papers 1357, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 810-854.
    19. Benoit Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    20. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:4:p:535-558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.