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Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward‐Looking Taylor Rules without Forward‐Looking Data

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  • ALEX NIKOLSKO‐RZHEVSKYY

Abstract

I propose a methodology for estimating forward‐looking Taylor rules in real time when forward‐looking real‐time central bank data are unavailable. The methodology consists of choosing appropriate models to closely replicate U.S. Greenbook forecasts and then applying these models to Canada, Germany, and the U.K. The results show that German and U.S. Taylor rules are characterized by inflation coefficients increasing with the forecast horizon and a positive output gap response. The U.K. and Canada interest rate reaction functions achieve maximum inflation response at middle‐term horizons of about 1/2 years and the output gap coefficient is insignificant.

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  • Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward‐Looking Taylor Rules without Forward‐Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:43:y:2011:i:5:p:871-897
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00400.x
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