IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jintdv/v19y2007i8p1131-1142.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coffee price volatility in Ethiopia: effects of market reform programmes

Author

Listed:
  • Firdu Gemech

    (University of Paisley, Scotland, UK)

  • John Struthers

    (University of Paisley, Scotland, UK)

Abstract

This study presents the results of an empirical investigation into the effects of market reform programmes in Ethiopia and their impact on the volatility of coffee prices. The study covers the period from 1982 to the end of 2001, though its main focus is on the period after the commencement of the reforms in 1992. Using the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) techniques, we argue that there is evidence that Ethiopia experienced a significant increase in coffee price volatility after the adoption of the market-oriented reform programmes. This is consistent with much of the literature. The econometric evidence presented in the paper, suggests that the market reform programmes were a significant cause of the increased volatility after 1992. The authors also suggest a number of possible policy responses to the price volatility, including strengthening the role of smallholder producer associations; and the possibility of adopting appropriate risk-management strategies. However, the institutional and structural characteristics of coffee production in Ethiopia within the global market for coffee may mitigate against the successful implementation of such policies. The fact that Ethiopia is a price-taker in this market and is therefore prone to external shocks in coffee prices over which it has little control or influence means that the country will continue to be highly vulnerable to the natural cycles that are endemic in the production of such primary commodities as coffee. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Firdu Gemech & John Struthers, 2007. "Coffee price volatility in Ethiopia: effects of market reform programmes," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(8), pages 1131-1142.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:19:y:2007:i:8:p:1131-1142
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.1389
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jid.1389
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jid.1389?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kidane, A., 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Price and Agricultural Supply Response in Ethiopia: The Case of Perennial Crops," Papers 99, African Economic Research Consortium.
    2. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1985. "Futures Trading and the Welfare Evaluation of Commodity Price Stabilisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 637-661, September.
    3. Choi, Seungmook & Kim, Benjamin J. C., 1991. "Monetary policy regime changes and the risk premium in the foreign exchange markets : A GARCH application," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 447-452, December.
    4. Gilbert, Christopher L., 1996. "International Commodity Agreements: An obituary notice," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, January.
    5. repec:aer:wpaper:99 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Minten, Bart & Kyle, Steven, 2000. "Retail Margins, Price Transmission and Price Asymmetry in Urban Food Markets: The Case of Kinshasa (Zaire)," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, March.
    7. A. P. Thirlwall, 1989. "Growth and Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-1-349-19837-5, October.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    9. John Baffes, 2005. "Tanzania's coffee sector: constraints and challenges," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 21-43.
    10. Sushil Mohan & James Love, 2004. "Coffee futures: role in reducing coffee producers' price risk," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(7), pages 983-1002.
    11. Maizels, Alfred & Bacon, Robert & Mavrotas, George, 1997. "Commodity Supply Management by Producing Countries: A Case-Study of the Tropical Beverage Crops," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233381.
    12. B Minten & S Kyle, 2000. "Retail margins, price transmission and price asymmetry in urban food markets: the case of Kinshasa (Zaire)," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Grandisky Lerner & Helder Marcos Freitas Pereira & Maria Sylvia Macchione Saes & Gustavo Magalhães de Oliveira, 2021. "When Unfair Trade Is Also at Home: The Economic Sustainability of Coffee Farms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Vincent Canwat, 2023. "Value chains and sustainable development: A perspective of sustainable coffee value chains in East Africa," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 668-679, April.
    3. Spencer Dorsey, 2020. "The opportunity cost of intrastate violence and the out-of-sample validity of commodity price shocks," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(3), pages 309-324, July.
    4. Lee, Jun & Gomez, Miguel I., 2011. "Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International-to-Retail Price Transmission," Working Papers 126600, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    5. Arslan, Aslıhan & Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2010. "The effects of the Coffee Trademarking Initiative and Starbucks publicity on export prices of Ethiopian coffee," Kiel Working Papers 1606, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. John M. Fry & Baoying Lai & Mark Rhodes, 2011. "The interdependence of Coffee spot and futures market," Working Papers 2011.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    7. Andersson, Camilla & Bezabih, Mintewab & Mannberg, Andrea, 2017. "The Ethiopian Commodity Exchange and spatial price dispersion," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Jun Lee & Miguel I. Gómez, 2013. "Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International-to-Retail Price Transmission," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 343-362, June.
    9. Unknown, 2012. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 08, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 8(1), pages 112-112.
    10. Kirk, Robert, 1971. "Growth Potential Identification and Public Investment Strategy," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12.
    11. Hernandez, Manuel & Lemma, Solomon & Rashid, Shahidur, 2015. "The Ethiopian Commodity Exchange and the coffee market: Are local prices more integrated to global markets?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211732, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Framingham, Charles F. & Craddock, W.J., 1974. "Urban Implications of Regional and Interregional Efficiency in Agricultural Production," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18.
    13. Tröster, Bernhard, 2015. "Global commodity chains, financial markets, and local market structures: Price risks in the coffee sector in Ethiopia," Working Papers 56, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed, Osama, 2018. "Vertical price transmission in the Egyptian tomato sector after the Arab Spring," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50(47), pages 5094-5109.
    2. C. W. Morgan, 2001. "Commodity futures markets in LDCs: a review and prospects," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 1(2), pages 139-150, April.
    3. nnamdi, Kelechi & ifionu, Ebele, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and exchange rate uncertainty in Nigeria: a financial econometric analysis (1970- 2012)," MPRA Paper 48316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    4. Larson, Donald F. & Borrell, Brent, 2001. "Sugar policy and reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2602, The World Bank.
    5. Thiago Cacicedo, 2022. "Cartels and asymmetric cost pass-through: evidence from Brazilian gas stations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 2034-2042.
    6. Escobal, Javier, 2005. "The Role of Public Infraestructure in Market Development in Rural Peru," MPRA Paper 727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Akiyama, Takamasa & Baffes, John & Larson, Donald F. & Varangis, Panos, 2003. "Commodity market reform in Africa: some recent experience," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 83-115, March.
    8. C. W. Morgan & A. J. Rayner & C. Vaillant, 1999. "Agricultural futures markets in LDCs: a policy response to price volatility?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 893-910.
    9. Buch Claudia M. & Pierdzioch Christian & Doepke Joerg, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, December.
    10. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Begum, Ismat Ara & Buysse, Jeroen & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Wailes, Eric J. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2010. "Testing Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Vertical Supply Chain in De-regulated Rice Markets in Bangladesh," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61374, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Luigi Ventimiglia, 2012. "Commodity markets," Chapters, in: Jan Toporowski & Jo Michell (ed.), Handbook of Critical Issues in Finance, chapter 8, pages i-ii, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Bernhard Tröster & Ulrich Gunter, 2023. "The Financialization of Coffee, Cocoa and Cotton Value Chains: The Role of Physical Actors," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(6), pages 1550-1574, November.
    13. Saadi, Samir & Rahman, Abdul, 2008. "Evidence of non-stationary bias in scaling by square root of time: Implications for Value-at-Risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 272-289, July.
    14. Winter-Nelson, Alex & Temu, Anna, 2002. "Institutional Adjustment and Transaction Costs: Product and Inputs Markets in the Tanzanian Coffee System," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 561-574, April.
    15. Muneer Shaik & Abhiram Kartik Lanka & Gurmeet Singh, 2021. "Analysis of lead-lag relationship and volatility spillover: evidence from Indian agriculture commodity markets," International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 258-279.
    16. Tröster, Bernhard & Gunter, Ulrich, 2022. "Trading for speculators: The role of physical actors in the financialization of coffee, cocoa and cotton value chains," Working Papers 68, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    17. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility and Stock Prices Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria, 1986-2012," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-4.
    18. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    19. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    20. Athanasopoulos, George & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2011. "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 116-129, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:19:y:2007:i:8:p:1131-1142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/5102/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.