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Randomization and Ambiguity Aversion

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  • Shaowei Ke
  • Qi Zhang

Abstract

We propose a model of preferences in which the effect of randomization on ambiguity depends on how the unknown probability law is determined. We adopt the framework of Anscombe and Aumann (1963) and relax the axioms. In the resulting representation of the individual's preference, the individual has a collection of sets of priors M. She believes that before she moves, nature has chosen an unknown scenario (a set of priors) from M, and from that scenario, nature will choose a prior after she moves. The representation illustrates how randomization may partially eliminate the effect of ambiguity.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaowei Ke & Qi Zhang, 2020. "Randomization and Ambiguity Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1159-1195, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:88:y:2020:i:3:p:1159-1195
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA15182
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    9. Calford, Evan M., 2021. "Mixed strategies and preference for randomization in games with ambiguity averse agents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    10. Guo, Huiyi, 2024. "Collusion-proof mechanisms for full surplus extraction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 263-284.
    11. Ewerhart, Christian & Li, Sheng, 2023. "Imposing Choice on the Uninformed: The Case of Dynamic Currency Conversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. Zhiwei Liu & Nicholas C. Yannelis, 2021. "Persuasion in an asymmetric information economy: a justification of Wald’s maxmin preferences," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(3), pages 801-833, October.
    13. Soheil Ghili & Peter Klibanoff, 2021. "If It Is Surely Better, Do It More? Implications for Preferences Under Ambiguity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7619-7636, December.
    14. Bade, Sophie, 2022. "Dynamic semi-consistency," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-126.
    15. Sarah Auster & Christian Kellner, 2023. "Timing Decisions Under Model Uncertainty," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_460, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    16. Liu, Zhiwei & Song, Xinxi & Yannelis, Nicholas C., 2020. "Randomization under ambiguity: Efficiency and incentive compatibility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-11.
    17. Zhiwei Liu & Nicholas C. Yannelis, 2022. "Mixed strategy implementation under ambiguity," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 10(1), pages 167-181, May.
    18. Tang, Rui & Zhang, Mu, 2021. "Maxmin implementation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    19. Benjamin Monet & Vassili Vergopoulos, 2024. "Ambiguity, randomization and the timing of resolution of uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(4), pages 1021-1045, December.
    20. Sarah Auster & Christian Kellner, 2023. "Timing Decisions under Model Uncertainty," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 252, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    21. Michael Greinecker & Christoph Kuzmics, 2022. "Limit Orders and Knightian Uncertainty," Papers 2208.10804, arXiv.org.
    22. Song, Yangwei, 2022. "Approximate Bayesian Implementation and Exact Maxmin Implementation: An Equivalence," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 362, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
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