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The Hayek Hypothesis and Long‐run Competitive Equilibrium: An Experimental Investigation

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  • Jason Shachat
  • Zhenxuan Zhang

Abstract

We report on an experiment investigating whether the Hayek Hypothesis (Smith, 1982) extends to the long run setting. We consider two environments; one with a common production technology having a U-shaped long run average cost curve and a single competitive equilibrium, and another with a common constant returns to scale technology having a constant long run average cost curve and multiple competitive equilibria. While there is convergence in both environments to the long run equilibrium, it takes longer and is less robust than usually observed in the short run setting. We show that price formation is adaptive and quickly converges to realize short run equilibrium, but long run investment decisions exhibit very limited rationality. We present and estimate an investment choice model that shows that only minimal rationality, coupled with repeated decisions, is enough to achieve high long run allocative efficiency when markets use continuous double auctions.
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  • Jason Shachat & Zhenxuan Zhang, 2017. "The Hayek Hypothesis and Long‐run Competitive Equilibrium: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(599), pages 199-228, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:127:y:2017:i:599:p:199-228
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecoj.2017.127.issue-599
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jinrui Pan & Jason Shachat & Sijia Wei, 2022. "Cognitive Stress and Learning Economic Order Quantity Inventory Management: An Experimental Investigation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 229-254, September.
    3. Konstantinos Georgalos & John Hey, 2020. "Testing for the emergence of spontaneous order," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(3), pages 912-932, September.
    4. Jinrui Pan & Jason Shachat & Sijia Wei, 2020. "Cognitive reflection and economic order quantity inventory management: An experimental investigation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 998-1009, September.
    5. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Hoque, Hafiz, 2015. "Return predictability and the ‘wisdom of crowds’: Genetic Programming trading algorithms, the Marginal Trader Hypothesis and the Hayek Hypothesis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 85-98.
    6. Christian A. Conrad, 2022. "The Effects of Demand and Interest Rates on Investments, Evidence of Overinvestment from Two Behavioral Experiments," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 19-28, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact

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