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The Evolution of Party Systems between Elections

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  • Michael Laver
  • Kenneth Benoit

Abstract

Most existing theoretical work on party competition pays little attention to the evolution of party systems between elections as a result of defections between parties. In this article, we treat individual legislators as utility‐maximizing agents tempted to defect to other parties if this would increase their expected payoffs. We model the evolution of party systems between elections in these terms and discuss this analytically, exploring unanswered questions using computational methods. Under office‐seeking motivational assumptions, our results strikingly highlight the role of the largest party, especially when it is “dominant” in the technical sense, as a pole of attraction in interelectoral evolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Laver & Kenneth Benoit, 2003. "The Evolution of Party Systems between Elections," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 215-233, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:47:y:2003:i:2:p:215-233
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-5907.00015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
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    Cited by:

    1. Henrique Augusto Campos Fernandez Hott & Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai, 2021. "Party switching and political outcomes: evidence from Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 187(3), pages 403-438, June.
    2. Hande Mutlu-Eren, 2015. "Keeping the party together," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 117-133, July.
    3. Crutzen, Benoît S.Y. & Flamand, Sabine, 2023. "Leaders, factions and the determinants of electoral success," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Jean-François Laslier & Bilge Ozturk Goktuna, 2016. "Opportunist politicians and the evolution of electoral competition," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 381-406, May.
    5. William B. Heller & Carol Mershon, 2008. "Dealing in Discipline: Party Switching and Legislative Voting in the Italian Chamber of Deputies, 1988–2000," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 910-925, October.
    6. Emanuele Brancati & Silvia Fedeli & Francesco Forte & Leone Leonida, 2022. "Opportunism and MPs’ chances of re-election: an analysis of political transformism in the Italian parliament," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 273-308, September.
    7. Gail McElroy, 2007. "Legislative Politics as Normal?," European Union Politics, , vol. 8(3), pages 433-448, September.
    8. Aaron R Martin, 2021. "Party group collapse and strategic switching in the European Parliament," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 521-544, September.
    9. Bilge Öztürk Göktuna, 2019. "A dynamic model of party membership and ideologies," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 31(2), pages 209-243, April.
    10. K.K. Kailash & Balveer Arora, 2016. "Federal Coalitions in India: Strategic Calculations and Revolving-door Partners," Studies in Indian Politics, , vol. 4(1), pages 63-76, June.
    11. Paula González & Francesca Passarelli & M. Socorro Puy, 2019. "Discipline, party switching and policy divergence," Working Papers 19.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    12. Csaba Nikolenyi, 2019. "Party Switching in Israel: Understanding the Split of the Labor Party in 2011," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 6(3-4), pages 408-422, September.
    13. Carol Mershon & Olga Shvetsova, 2014. "Change in parliamentary party systems and policy outcomes: Hunting the core," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 26(2), pages 331-351, April.

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