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The Impact of Energy Sector on Overshooting of Agricultural Prices

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  • Mahdi Asgari
  • Sayed H. Saghaian
  • Michael R. Reed

Abstract

The Federal Reserve shifted monetary policy from early 2016 by gradually increasing nominal interest rates until very recently (July 2019). A decline in commodity prices is expected in response to a contractionary policy. According to the overshooting hypothesis, agricultural prices could decrease more than their long‐run equilibrium levels (i.e., overshoot) in the short run. This research contributes to the overshooting literature by including the energy sector in the overshooting model. The theoretical results show that flexible energy prices share the burden of the shock with other flexible prices and, thus, agricultural prices and the exchange rate overshoot but less than the results of prior studies. The empirical results confirm the theoretical expectation that agricultural commodities adjust faster than manufacturing prices, but energy prices reduce the extent to which agricultural prices overshoot. This adjustment behavior has implications for income stability and financial viability of farmers.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Asgari & Sayed H. Saghaian & Michael R. Reed, 2020. "The Impact of Energy Sector on Overshooting of Agricultural Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 589-606, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:102:y:2020:i:2:p:589-606
    DOI: 10.1002/ajae.12035
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    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Yixuan & Malone, Trey & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Myers, Robert J., 2023. "Disentangling Short-Run COVID-19 Price Impact Pathways in the US Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(2), May.
    2. Zhang, Wenbei & Luckert, Marty & Qiu, Feng, 2023. "Asymmetric price transmission and impulse responses from U.S. crude oil to jet fuel and diesel markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Solomon Odiase & Sayed H. Saghaian, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Vertical Price Transmission in the U.S. Fresh Banana Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Yongxi Ma & Lu Zhang & Shixiong Song & Shuao Yu, 2022. "Impacts of Energy Price on Agricultural Production, Energy Consumption, and Carbon Emission in China: A Price Endogenous Partial Equilibrium Model Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Sima Siami‐Namini, 2021. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Commodity Prices: A SVECM Approach," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 288-312, December.

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