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The 1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement: A forecast simulation analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas I. Wahl

    (Department of Economics and the Meat Export Research Center, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa)

  • Gary W. Williams

    (Department of Economics and the Meat Export Research Center, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa)

  • Dermot J. Hayes

    (Department of Economics and the Meat Export Research Center, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa)

Abstract

This article utilizes dynamic simulation analysis to consider the likely consequences of the 1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement (BMAA) on the Japanese livestock industry and beef imports. The results lead to a number of conclusions. Beef imports will increase to the new quota level in the first three years and continue increasing at about the same rate thereafter. The shift from the import quota to the import tariff in 1991 will have little effect on imports or prices. Finally, the US share of increasing Japanese beef imports will increase at the expense of Australia and New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas I. Wahl & Gary W. Williams & Dermot J. Hayes, 1989. "The 1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement: A forecast simulation analysis," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 347-360.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:5:y:1989:i:4:p:347-360
    DOI: 10.1002/1520-6297(198907)5:4<347::AID-AGR2720050405>3.0.CO;2-H
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl D. Meilke & G.R. Griffith, 1981. "An application of the Market Share Approach to the demand for soyabean and rapeseed oil," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 8(1), pages 85-97.
    2. Dermot J. Hayes & Thomas I. Wahl & Gary W. Williams, 1990. "Testing Restrictions on a Model of Japanese Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 556-566.
    3. Wahl, Thomas I. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Williams, Gary W., 1987. "Japanese Beef Policy and GATT Negotiations: An Analysis of Reducing Assistance to Beef Producers," Working Papers 51242, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Chalfant, James A, 1987. "A Globally Flexible, Almost Ideal Demand System," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(2), pages 233-242, April.
    5. Miyazaki, Akira, 1986. "Production and Consumption of Beef in Japan," Western Region Archives 307732, Western Region - Western Extension Directors Association (WEDA).
    6. Miyazaki, Akira, 1986. "Production and Consumption of Beef in Japan," Western Region Archives 279353, Western Region - Western Extension Directors Association (WEDA).
    7. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Biing-Hwan & Makus, Larry D., 1990. "TOTAL IMPORTS AND IMPORT PATTERNS OF BARLEY INTO JAPAN: Implications of the 1988 Japanese Beef Market Access Agreement," A.E. Research Series 140525, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    2. Morison, Julian B. & Officer, Linda J., 1992. "Factors Affecting Japanese Investment in the Australian Beef Industry," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(03), pages 1-12, December.

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