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Long-Term Trends in International Migration: Lessons from Macroeconomic Model

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  • Docquier Frédéric

    (FNRS and IRES Universite catholique de Louvain, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgique)

Abstract

In this paper I develop a stylized model of the world economy and use it to explain the long-run trends in international migration. The model very well fits the trends of the last 40 years which are mainly governed by the evolution of population disparities between industrialized and developing countries. Then I provide migration projections for the 21st century and show that future migration is also governed by socio-demographic changes. I predict a robust increase in immigration pressures from sub-Saharan Africa and MENA countries to European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Docquier Frédéric, 2018. "Long-Term Trends in International Migration: Lessons from Macroeconomic Model," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 3-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecobur:v:4:y:2018:i:1:p:3-15:n:1
    DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2018.1.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Paper 96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
    2. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    3. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Cansin Arslan & Jean-Christophe Dumont & Zovanga Kone & Yasser Moullan & Caglar Ozden & Christopher Parsons & Theodora Xenogiani, 2015. "A New Profile of Migrants in the Aftermath of the Recent Economic Crisis," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 160, OECD Publishing.
    5. Angrist, Joshua D, 1995. "The Economic Returns to Schooling in the West Bank and Gaza Strip," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1065-1087, December.
    6. Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2017. "Income disparities, population and migration flows over the 21st century," Development Working Papers 421, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    7. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    8. Simone Bertoli & J. Fernandes-Huertas Moraga, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Post-Print halshs-00820169, HAL.
    9. Gordon Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2016. "Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 57-82, Fall.
    10. Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2017. "Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the Twenty First Century," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(2), pages 125-149, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert M. Beyer & Jacob Schewe & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2022. "Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    3. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2022. "Reverse Immigration Effects for Expatriates in Oman During the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(1), pages 19-37, May.
    4. Albano Rikani & Jacob Schewe, 2021. "Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(4), pages 87-140.

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