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An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile

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  • J.Marcelo Ochoa

Abstract

This paper attempts to provide an economic interpretation of the factors that drive the movements of interest rates of bonds of different maturities in a continuous-time no-arbitrage term structure model for Chile. The dynamics of yields in the model are explained by two latent factors, namely the instantaneous short rate and its time-varying central tendency. The model estimates suggest that the short end of the yield curve is mainly driven by changes in first latent factor, while long-term interest rates are mainly explained by the second latent factor. Consequently, when examining movements in the term structure, one should think of at least two forces that hit the economy: temporary shocks that change short-term and medium-term interest rates by much larger amounts than long-term interest rates, causing changes in the slope of the yield curve; and long-lived innovations which have persistent effects on the level of the yield curve.

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  • J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:33:y:2006:i:2:p:155-184
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "On the Stratonovich – Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm application for accurate characterization of financial time series with use of state-space model by central banks," MPRA Paper 50235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    4. Mordecki, Ernesto & Rodríguez, Andrés Sosa, 2021. "Country risk for emerging economies: a dynamical index proposal with a case study," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 40(2), April.
    5. Rodrigo Alfaro, 2009. "The Yield Curve Under Nelson-Siegel," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 531, Central Bank of Chile.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Affine term structure model; yield curve; Kalman filter.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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