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What Can Explain Excess Smoothness and Sensitivity of State-Level Consumption?

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  • María José Luengo-Prado

    (Northeastern University)

  • Bent E. Sørensen

    (University of Houston, CEPR)

Abstract

This article estimates marginal propensities to consume (MPC) out of current and lagged income for U.S. states using panel data regressions that control for time-specific and state-level fixed effects. The MPCs vary across states; in particular, the MPC out of current income is higher in states where income is more persistent, and the MPC out of lagged income is lower in agricultural states. We show that the estimated MPCs can be matched by a model of forward-looking consumers that includes all of the following features: time aggregation, durable goods, impatience, credit constraints, and risk sharing. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • María José Luengo-Prado & Bent E. Sørensen, 2008. "What Can Explain Excess Smoothness and Sensitivity of State-Level Consumption?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 65-80, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:90:y:2008:i:1:p:65-80
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuliya Demyanyk & Dmytro Hryshko & María Jose Luengo-Prado & Bent E. Sorensen, 2015. "The Rise and Fall of Consumption in the 2000s," Working Papers (Old Series) 1507, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. In Ho Song, 2013. "House Prices and Monetary Policy: Focus on The Elasticity of Intra-Temporal Substitution between Housing and Consumption," 2013 Meeting Papers 747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. repec:wvu:wpaper:10-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio, 2015. "Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 21-41.
    5. Thomas Grennes & Pablo Guerron-quintana & Asli Leblebicioglu, 2010. "Economic Development and Volatility among the States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1963-1976.
    6. Hrishikesh D. Vinod, 2008. "Consumer Debt is 130% of Income: Avoiding Budget Constraint Orthodoxy," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-13, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    7. Christopher Biolsi & H. Youn Kim, 2021. "Analyzing state government spending: balanced budget rules or forward-looking decisions?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(4), pages 1035-1079, August.
    8. Juan Contreras & Joseph Nichols, 2009. "Consumption Responses to Permanent and Transitory Shocks to House Appreciation: Working Paper 2009-05," Working Papers 41876, Congressional Budget Office.
    9. Andrew Young & Russell Sobel, 2013. "Recovery and Reinvestment Act spending at the state level: Keynesian stimulus or distributive politics?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 449-468, June.
    10. Terézia Vančová, 2019. "The Excess Smoothness and Sensitivity of Consumption in the V4 Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(6), pages 1653-1663.
    11. Dirk Krueger & Egor Malkov & Fabrizio Perri, 2023. "How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?," Staff Report 655, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. André Kallåk Anundsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2015. "Did US Consumers 'Save for a Rainy Day' Before the Great Recession?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5347, CESifo.
    13. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank.
    14. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2015. "Trend Dominance in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Studies in Economics 1518, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    15. Fabrizio Perri & Dirk Krueger, 2009. "How does Household Consumption Respond to Income Shocks?," 2009 Meeting Papers 14, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Liya Liu & Yingjie Niu & Yuanping Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2020. "Optimal consumption with time-inconsistent preferences," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(3), pages 785-815, October.
    17. Sebnem Kalemli‐Ozcan & Emiliano Luttini & Bent Sørensen, 2014. "Debt Crises and Risk‐Sharing: The Role of Markets versus Sovereigns," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 253-276, January.
    18. Chen, Quanrun & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart & Yang, Cuihong, 2016. "Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input–output model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 52-63.
    19. Hryshko, Dmytro & José Luengo-Prado, María & Sørensen, Bent E., 2010. "House prices and risk sharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 975-987, November.
    20. Juan Contreras & Joseph B. Nichols, 2010. "Consumption responses to permanent and transitory shocks to house appreciation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Albert Solé-Ollé & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2011. "Local spending and the housing boom," Working Papers 2011/27, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    22. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2019. "Housing booms and local spending," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    23. Yuliya Demyanyk & Charlotte Ostergaard & Bent E. Sorensen, 2008. "Risk sharing and portfolio allocation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 334, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    24. Samih Antoine Azar, 2012. "On the specification of the asset evolution equation in consumption models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 113-116, February.

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