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Directional accuracy for inflation and unemployment rate predictions in Romania

Author

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  • Mihaela Simionescu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy, 050711, Bucharest - Romania, Casa Academiei, Calea 13 Septembrie no.13, District 5)

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to assess the usefulness and rationality of the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon 2001-2013 provided by all experts do not provide valuable information for future decisional process. According to Pesaran-Timmermann test, the directional forecasts of F3 and the autumn expectations of F2 are useful and rational.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Directional accuracy for inflation and unemployment rate predictions in Romania," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(2), pages 129-138, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:7:y:2014:i:2:p:129-138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts; directional accuracy; inflation rate; unemployment rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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